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Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines

Author

Listed:
  • J. James Reade

    () (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Carl Singleton

    () (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Alasdair Brown

    () (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)

Abstract

This study analyses point forecasts for a common set of events. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. The event outcomes were low-probability but had more predictable sub-outcomes, upon which they were also judged. Hence, the forecasts were multi-dimensional, complicating any evaluation. The events were association football matches in the English Premier League. The forecasts were of exact scoreline outcomes. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model suited to predicting football match scorelines. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

Suggested Citation

  • J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2019. "Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-18, Department of Economics, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2019-18
    as

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    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp201918v3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Jewell & J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "It's Just Not Cricket: The Uncontested Toss and the Gentleman's Game," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-10, Department of Economics, Reading University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Statistical modelling; Regression models; Prediction markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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