IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rdg/emxxdp/em-dp2019-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines

Author

Listed:
  • J. James Reade

    () (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Carl Singleton

    () (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Alasdair Brown

    () (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)

Abstract

This study analyses point forecasts for a common set of events. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. The event outcomes were low-probability but had more predictable sub-outcomes upon which they were also judged. Hence, the forecasts were multi-dimensional, complicating any evaluation. The events were football matches in the English Premier League. The forecasts were of exact scoreline outcomes. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probabilistic forecasts generated from a statistical model suited to predicting football match scorelines. By evaluating these sources and types of forecast using various methods, we decide that forecasts of this type are strange, which we define. We argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probabilistic forecasts, and find that both types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

Suggested Citation

  • J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2019. "Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2019-18, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2019-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp201918.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Statistical modelling; Regression models; Prediction markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2019-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Pearson). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.