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Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters

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  • James Reade

    () (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

Abstract

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent di erent structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform di erently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Suggested Citation

  • James Reade, 2014. "Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2014-05
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    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp2014110.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    2. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
    3. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    4. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
    5. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
    6. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
    7. Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
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