Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues
In this paper, we try to measure the semi-strong efficiency of the sports betting market. In particular, we aim to understand whether the efficiency of the market is realized in the case of fixed odds provided by bookmakers on the four major European football championships. By examining the trends of odds in the event of some major change in expectations about the teams’ results, i.e. when a team’s coach is replaced, we attempt to verify the argument that a profitable betting strategy for the bettor is likely possible. In this case, the market that we are taking into account will be inefficient.
|Date of creation:||02 Sep 2015|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
- Mukhtar Ali, 1998. "Probability models on horse-race outcomes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 221-229.
- Rick Audas & John Goddard & W. Glenn Rowe, 2006. "Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-306.
- Donald B. Hausch & William T. Ziemba & Mark Rubinstein, 1981. "Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(12), pages 1435-1452, December.
- Swidler, Steve & Shaw, Ron, 1995. "Racetrack wagering and the "uninformed" bettor: A study of market efficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 305-314.
- I. Graham & H. Stott, 2008. "Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for UK football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 99-109.
- David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
- Dixon, Mark J. & Pope, Peter F., 2004. "The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 697-711.
- Anthony Costa Constantinou & Norman Elliott Fenton, 2013. "Profiting From Arbitrage And Odds Biases Of The European Football Gambling Market," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(2), pages 41-70.
- Cain, Michael & Law, David & Peel, David, 2000. "The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
- Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
- Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 2008.
"Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: A Multinomial Logit Model For Handicapping Horse Races,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 17, pages 151-171
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 1986. "Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(8), pages 1040-1060, August.
- Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
- Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2012. "The Effects of Managerial Turnover," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 152-168, April.
- Hausch, Donald B & Ziemba, William T, 1990. "Arbitrage Strategies for Cross-Track Betting on Major Horse Races," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 61-78, January.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
- Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
- Tim Kuypers, 2000. "Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1353-1363.
- Asch, Peter & Malkiel, Burton G & Quandt, Richard E, 1984. "Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 165-175, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.