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Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues

Listed author(s):
  • Bernardo, Giovanni
  • Ruberti, Massimo
  • Verona, Roberto

In this paper, we try to measure the semi-strong efficiency of the sports betting market. In particular, we aim to understand whether the efficiency of the market is realized in the case of fixed odds provided by bookmakers on the four major European football championships. By examining the trends of odds in the event of some major change in expectations about the teams’ results, i.e. when a team’s coach is replaced, we attempt to verify the argument that a profitable betting strategy for the bettor is likely possible. In this case, the market that we are taking into account will be inefficient.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66414/1/MPRA_paper_66414.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 66414.

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Date of creation: 02 Sep 2015
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66414
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  9. Anthony Costa Constantinou & Norman Elliott Fenton, 2013. "Profiting From Arbitrage And Odds Biases Of The European Football Gambling Market," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(2), pages 41-70.
  10. Cain, Michael & Law, David & Peel, David, 2000. "The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
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  12. Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 2008. "Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: A Multinomial Logit Model For Handicapping Horse Races," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 17, pages 151-171 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  13. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
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  15. Hausch, Donald B & Ziemba, William T, 1990. "Arbitrage Strategies for Cross-Track Betting on Major Horse Races," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 61-78, January.
  16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  17. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
  18. Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
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