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Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance

  • Rick Audas

    (Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada A1B 3V6)

  • John Goddard

    (School of Business and Regional Development, University of Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK)

  • W. Glenn Rowe

    (Paul MacPherson Chair in Strategic Leadership, Richard Ivey School of Business, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 3K7)

Match-level National Hockey League (NHL) data are used to identify factors likely to trigger the departure of a team's coach, and to measure the short-term impact on subsequent match results. There is a statistically significant link between individual match results and the job departure hazard for up to 15 games prior to the point of departure. The hazard depends on the team's current standing within its conference relative to a pre-season forecast, recent performance in the Stanley Cup, the coach's age and previous employment with his present team as a player. After controlling for a mean-reversion effect, teams that changed their coach within-season are found to perform worse subsequently than those that did not, but the negative effect is short-lived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/mde.1259
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Managerial and Decision Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 293-306

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Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:27:y:2006:i:4:p:293-306
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976

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  1. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
  2. Denis, David J & Denis, Diane K, 1995. " Performance Changes Following Top Management Dismissals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-57, September.
  3. Scully, Gerald W., 1995. "The Market Structure of Sports," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226743950.
  4. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  6. Audas, Rick & Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2002. "The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 633-650.
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