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Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Yvon Rocaboy

    (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM - UMR 6211, F-35000 Rennes, France & Condorcet Center for Political Economy)

  • Marek Pavlik

    (Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Why and when are head coaches of professional football clubs dismissed, and what is the effect of coach dismissal on team performance? In this paper, we propose a new method for assessing the performance expectations of professional sport teams using Monte Carlo simulation. We investigate those questions by applying our method to the English Premier league and the French Ligue 1 football teams over the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons. We found that coach dismissal is the result of a drop in the average expected performance compared with the performance expectations at the beginning of the season. We also show that dismissing a coach may enhance performance only if the team under-performed before the dismissal. There is no obstacle to using the same method for professional teams in other sports. The method is easily reproducible and does not require much information in order to be applied. Our findings confirm and extend previous studies, and do so by using generally accessible data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2019. "Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2019-01, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    • Handle: RePEc:tut:cremwp:2019-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coach dismissal; Monte Carlo simulation; team performance; payrolls; expectations;
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