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CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Humphreys, Brad

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

  • Paul, Rodney

    (Syracure University)

  • Weinbach, Andrew

    (Coastal Carolina University)

Abstract

Previous research on CEO turnover indicates that a number of factors, including age, firm performance, and expected firm performance affect CEO turnover. Measurement of expected performance in these studies is typically based on investment analysts’ forecasts of earnings; these expectations potentially suffer from a number of problems, including the tendency for CEOs to “manage” analysts’ expectations. We examine the relationship between performance expectations and CEO turnover using data from NCAA Division I-A college football using a market-determined measure of expected performance, winning percentage against point spreads; this expected performance measure does not suffer from many of the problems that plague analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that performance expectations, actual expectations, and tenure affect CEO turnover in NCAA Division I-A college football, based on performance data from 102 Division I-A football programs over the period 1980-2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2011. "CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations," Working Papers 2011-14, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:2011_014
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    File URL: https://sites.ualberta.ca/~econwps/2011/wp2011-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Janina Kleinknecht & Daniel Würtenberger, 2022. "Information effects of managerial turnover on effort and performance: Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 791-812, April.
    2. Daniel Weimar & Pamela Wicker, 2017. "Moneyball Revisited," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 140-161, February.
    3. Julio del Corral & Andrés Maroto & Andrés Gallardo, 2017. "Are Former Professional Athletes and Native Better Coaches? Evidence From Spanish Basketball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(7), pages 698-719, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEO turnover; performance expectations; betting markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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