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CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations

Previous research on CEO turnover indicates that a number of factors, including age, firm performance, and expected firm performance affect CEO turnover. Measurement of expected performance in these studies is typically based on investment analysts’ forecasts of earnings; these expectations potentially suffer from a number of problems, including the tendency for CEOs to “manage” analysts’ expectations. We examine the relationship between performance expectations and CEO turnover using data from NCAA Division I-A college football using a market-determined measure of expected performance, winning percentage against point spreads; this expected performance measure does not suffer from many of the problems that plague analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that performance expectations, actual expectations, and tenure affect CEO turnover in NCAA Division I-A college football, based on performance data from 102 Division I-A football programs over the period 1980-2004.

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File URL: http://www.ualberta.ca/~econwps/2011/wp2011-14.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Alberta, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-14.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:2011_014
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  1. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 21-37, August.
  2. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
  3. Paul Holmes, 2011. "Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-178, April.
  4. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  5. Shen, Wei & Gentry, Richard J. & Tosi Jr., Henry L., 2010. "The impact of pay on CEO turnover: A test of two perspectives," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(7), pages 729-734, July.
  6. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2007. "Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 209-218, December.
  7. Powers, Eric A., 2005. "Interpreting logit regressions with interaction terms: an application to the management turnover literature," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 504-522, June.
  8. Engel, Ellen & Hayes, Rachel M. & Wang, Xue, 2003. "CEO turnover and properties of accounting information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 197-226, December.
  9. Audas, Rick & Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2002. "The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 633-650.
  10. Egon Franck & Stephan Nüesch & Jan Pieper, 2010. "How Expectations Affect Managerial Change," Working Papers 0139, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
  11. Brickley, James A., 2003. "Empirical research on CEO turnover and firm-performance: a discussion," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 227-233, December.
  12. Aboody, David & Kasznik, Ron, 2000. "CEO stock option awards and the timing of corporate voluntary disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 73-100, February.
  13. de Dios Tena, Juan & Forrest, David, 2007. "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 362-373, August.
  14. Farrell, Kathleen A. & Whidbee, David A., 2003. "Impact of firm performance expectations on CEO turnover and replacement decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 165-196, December.
  15. Barron, John M. & Chulkov, Dmitriy V. & Waddell, Glen R., 2011. "Top management team turnover, CEO succession type, and strategic change," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 904-910, August.
  16. Rick Audas & John Goddard & W. Glenn Rowe, 2006. "Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-306.
  17. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2008. "Price Setting in the NBA Gambling Market: Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 3(3), pages 137-145, August.
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