How Expectations Affect Managerial Change
This study addresses the question how performance expectations affect involuntary managerial change. As we measure performance expectations based on highly efficient bookmaker odds, our specification is less subject to manipulations than the analyst forecasts employed in prior studies. Using match-level data from the German Bundesliga, we empirically investigate to which extent deviations from rational performance expectations affect the probability of involuntary coach dismissal, even after controlling for various measures of actual team performance. We find that coaches who face higher performance expectations are more likely to be fired than peers with similar performance records but lower expectations.
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