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A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian Advantage

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  • Daniel M. Chin

    (University of South Florida)

Abstract

Medical research shows that the human body typically performs at its best during late afternoon hours, and that the results of National Football League (NFL) games can partly be explained by differences in these levels of performance, coined the circadian advantage, when teams based in different time zones play against each other. This paper uses an augmented version of Dare and Holland’s (2004) generalized model to provide evidence that a circadian advantage bias exists in the NFL betting market. Detailed betting data used here supports results from Levitt (2004) and Paul and Weinbach (2007) by showing that sports books make use of the bias by setting odds that bait bettors who are unaware of the circadian advantage into making what tends to be a losing wager on the disadvantaged team.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel M. Chin, 2011. "A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian Advantage," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 5(3), pages 15-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:5:y:2011:i:3:p:15-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2007. "Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 209-218, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bryan C. McCannon, 2015. "Replacement Referees And Nfl Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(2), pages 14-26.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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