An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC
We analyze the intra-week evolution of bookie-quoted National Football League betting lines in New York City and its implications for market efficiency. Our unique data set includes three sequential lines: (i) an outlaw line set by a single agent at the beginning of the week; (ii) Tuesday's opening line shaped by bets from a group of eight to ten agents; and (iii) a game-time closing line shaped by the wider public. While forecast encompassing tests show that information content increases during the betting week, consistent with a reasonably well-functioning market, we also uncover significant evidence of pricing inefficiencies relating to sentiment measures. In addition, actual bets made by a number of professional gamblers appear profitable, pointing to the existence of superior analysts.
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