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Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games

Author

Listed:
  • Roger C. Vergin

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Michael Scriabin

    (Simon Fraser University)

Abstract

An attempt was made to develop profitable strategies for betting on National Football League games. The research was based on the hypothesis that biases exist in the setting of pointspeads and that these biases can be detected and used for profitable wagering. An analysis of 1969-1974 data suggests that biases of several types do exist and that they are of sufficient magnitude to allow profitable betting strategies despite the normal five percent betting fee.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger C. Vergin & Michael Scriabin, 1978. "Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(8), pages 809-818, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:24:y:1978:i:8:p:809-818
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.24.8.809
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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    2. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Quitzau, Jörn & Vöpel, Henning, 2009. "Der Faktor Zufall im Fußball: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Saison 2007/08," HWWI Research Papers 1-22, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.
    5. Hofer, Vera & Leitner, Johannes, 2017. "Relative pricing of binary options in live soccer betting markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 66-85.
    6. Daniel Kuester & Shane Sanders, 2011. "Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 116-122, January.
    7. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.
    8. Mark Burkey, 2005. "On "Arbitage" and Market Efficiency: An Examination of NFL Wagering," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), pages 13-28.
    9. Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & David Kirch & Andrew Kreutzer, 2012. "Informational Differences In Nfl Point Spread And Moneyline Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11.
    10. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.
    11. Quitzau, Jörn, 2005. "Faktor Zufall als Spielverderber: zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Fußballergebnissen – Wettmärkte als effizienter Informationslieferant," Research Notes 18, Deutsche Bank Research.
    12. Frank Daumann & Markus Breuer, 2011. "The Role of Information in Professional Football and the German Football Betting Market," Chapters,in: Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
    14. Bryan Boulier & H. O. Stekler & Sarah Amundson, 2006. "Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284.
    15. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach & J. Weinbach, 2003. "Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 236-242, June.
    16. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2017. "A favorite-longshot bias in fixed-odds betting markets: Evidence from college basketball and college football," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 233-239.
    17. Adi Schnytzer, 2011. "The Prediction Market for the Australian Football League," Working Papers 2011-15, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.

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