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Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL


  • Sean Wever
  • David Aadland


Previous research has failed to draw any clear conclusions about the efficiency of the billion-dollar gambling industry for National Football League (NFL) games. We build on previous research and expose a new market inefficiency, which is consistent with the well-documented notion of herd behaviour in behavioural finance. A differential strategy of betting on home and visitor underdogs with large closing lines can produce statistically significant positive returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean Wever & David Aadland, 2012. "Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 93-97, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:93-97
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.568384

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    Cited by:

    1. Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.
    2. Andy Fodor, 2014. "Does Jet Lag Create A Profitable Opportunity For Nfl Bettors?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(1), pages 41-52.
    3. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.

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