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Der Faktor Zufall im Fußball: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Saison 2007/08

  • Quitzau, Jörn
  • Vöpel, Henning
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    Der Zufall kann im Sport durch Fehlentscheidungen der Schiedsrichter, Verletzungen oder abgefälschte Torschüsse eine große Rolle spielen. In der Bundesliga betrug der Einfluss des Zufalls auf den Spielausgang in der Saison 2007/08 im Durchschnitt über 50 Prozent. Wer um die Meisterschaft und wer gegen den Abstieg spielt, ist daher auch eine Frage von Glück und Pech.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/48193/1/640206204.pdf
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    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 1-22.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:1-22
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    1. Eugene F Fama, . "Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance," CRSP working papers 448, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    2. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. " Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-37, September.
    3. Woodland, Linda M & Woodland, Bill M, 1994. " Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 269-79, March.
    4. Gandar, John, et al, 1988. " Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 995-1008, September.
    5. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1979. "Some Evidence of the Efficiency of a Speculative Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 387-92, March.
    6. Zuber, Richard A & Gandar, John M & Bowers, Benny D, 1985. "Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 800-806, August.
    7. Roger C. Vergin & Michael Scriabin, 1978. "Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(8), pages 809-818, April.
    8. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-74, Spring.
    9. Figlewski, Stephen, 1979. "Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 75-88, February.
    10. Quitzau, Jörn, 2005. "Faktor Zufall als Spielverderber: zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Fußballergebnissen – Wettmärkte als effizienter Informationslieferant," Research Notes 18, Deutsche Bank Research.
    11. Snyder, Wayne W, 1978. "Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1109-18, September.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    13. Sauer, Raymond D, et al, 1988. "Hold Your Bets: Another Look at the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 206-13, February.
    14. Vöpel, Henning, 2006. "Ein ZIDANE-Clustering-Theorem und Implikationen für den Finanzausgleich in der Bundesliga," HWWI Research Papers 1-3, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    15. Golec, Joseph & Tamarkin, Maurry, 1991. "The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market : Statistical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 311-323, December.
    16. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-61, December.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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