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Faktor Zufall als Spielverderber: zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Fußballergebnissen – Wettmärkte als effizienter Informationslieferant

  • Quitzau, Jörn
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    Der kommerzielle Erfolg eines professionellen Fußballspiels hängt wesentlich vom erwarteten Spannungsgrad ab. Je weniger der Spielausgang prognostizierbar ist, desto größer ist das Zuschauerinteresse. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird deshalb die quantitative Bedeutung des Erfolgsfaktors Zufall im Profifußball untersucht. Die Quantifizierung erfolgt mit Hilfe von Wettquoten und basiert auf der Annahme, dass Wettmärkte informationseffizient sind. Es zeigt sich, dass in den beiden untersuchten Ligen (Deutsche Bundesliga, Spanische Primera Division) mehr als die Hälfte der Spiele entscheidend vom Zufall beeinflusst werden. Zufall scheint damit – zumindest kurzfristig – eine noch bedeutsamere Erfolgsdeterminante als die Finanzkraft der Vereine zu sein. Daraus resultieren nicht zu unterschätzende Implikationen: Für das Management eines Vereins heißt dies, dass die (sportliche) Grenzproduktivität von Spielerkäufen im Durchschnitt geringer ist, als allgemein angenommen. Zudem sind Trainerwechsel offenbar seltener angezeigt, als es im Bundesliga-Alltag gängige Praxis ist. Für die Liga bedeutet der hohe Einfluss des Faktors Zufall, dass im Vergleich zu anderen Teamsportarten weniger institutionelle – Wettbewerbsbeschränkende – Regelungen zum Erhalt der Liga-Stabilität nötig sind. Wettbewerbspolitisch bedeutet das, dass eine zentrale, monopolistische Vermarktung mit weitreichender Erlös-Umverteilung abgeschafft werden könnte, ohne dass die Liga Schaden nehmen muss. Die Spanische Primera Division kann hier als Vorbild gelten. Die Folgen des Schiedsrichter-Wettskandals könnten den Zufallseinfluss künftig abschwächen, wenn nämlich Maßnahmen wie z.B. ein Videobeweis eingeführt würden. Die Zahl der Zufallsmomente, die u.a. den Reiz eines Fußballspiels ausmachen, könnte dadurch reduziert werden.

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    Paper provided by Deutsche Bank Research in its series Research Notes with number 18.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:18
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