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Asset Pricing and Sports Betting

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  • TOBIAS J. MOSKOWITZ

Abstract

Sports betting markets offer a novel laboratory to test theories of cross‐sectional asset pricing anomalies. Two features of this market—no systematic risk and terminal values exogenous to betting activity—evade the joint hypothesis problem, allowing mispricing to be detected. Examining a large and diverse set of liquid betting contracts, I find strong evidence of momentum, consistent with delayed overreaction and inconsistent with underreaction and rational pricing. Returns are a fraction of those in financial markets and fail to overcome transactions costs, preventing arbitrage from eliminating them. An insight from betting also predicts value and momentum returns in U.S. equities.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:6:p:3153-3209
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13082
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    2. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
    3. Scott M. Kaplan, 2022. "Putting a price on popularity: Evidence from superstars in the National Basketball Association," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1357-1381, July.
    4. Yulin Liu & Luyao Zhang, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Explainable AI Approach," Papers 2201.12893, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    5. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Johannes Kasinger & Dmitrij Schneider, 2024. "Skewness Preferences: Evidence from Online Poker," CESifo Working Paper Series 10977, CESifo.
    6. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Kasinger, Johannes & Schneider, Dmitrij, 2024. "Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 460-484.
    8. Vandenbruaene, Jonas & De Ceuster, Marc & Annaert, Jan, 2023. "Does time series momentum also exist outside traditional financial markets? Near-laboratory evidence from sports betting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Johannes Kasinger, 2024. "Shrouded Sin Taxes," Papers 2409.01493, arXiv.org.
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    11. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
      • Marius Otting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Papers 2211.06052, arXiv.org.
    12. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Kasinger, Johannes & Schneider, Dmitrij, 2022. "Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker," SAFE Working Paper Series 351, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Nofsinger, John R. & Shank, Corey A., 2023. "Momentum trading in the NFL gambling market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    14. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Risk-weighted cryptocurrency indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
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