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Momentum trading in the NFL gambling market

Author

Listed:
  • Nofsinger, John R.
  • Shank, Corey A.

Abstract

We explore the impact of momentum trading in the NFL betting market at the aggregate weekly level. Bettors prefer to bet on momentum rather than mean reversion in the totals market. The effect is strongest when they bet that the total points scored by both teams will be under the betting line set by bookmakers, especially when the under bet won 60% or more of the games in the previous 1, 2, and 3 weeks. Momentum trading by betting the score will be over the betting line loses money, while trading in the under makes a profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Nofsinger, John R. & Shank, Corey A., 2023. "Momentum trading in the NFL gambling market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pb:s1544612323003781
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; Momentum; Sports betting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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