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Institutional Trade Persistence and Long-term Equity Returns

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  • Amil Dasgupta

    ()

  • Andrea Prat

    ()

  • Michela Verardo

    ()

Abstract

Recent studies show that single-quarter institutional herding positively predicts short-term returns. Motivated by the theoretical herding literature, which emphasizes endogenous persistence in decisions over time, we estimate the effect of multi-quarter institutional buying and selling on stock returns. Using both regression and portfolio tests, we find that persistent institutional trading negatively predicts long-term returns: persistently sold stocks outperform persistently bought stocks at long horizons. The negative association between returns and institutional trade persistence is not subsumed by past returns or other stock characteristics, is concentrated among smaller stocks, and is stronger for stocks with higher institutional ownership.

Suggested Citation

  • Amil Dasgupta & Andrea Prat & Michela Verardo, 2010. "Institutional Trade Persistence and Long-term Equity Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp661, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp661
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Charles & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W. & Petrasek, Lubomir, 2014. "Hedge fund holdings and stock market efficiency," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. repec:eee:jebusi:v:94:y:2017:i:c:p:32-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Changki Kim & Yangho Choi & Woojoo Lee & Jae Youn Ahn, 2013. "Analyzing Herd Behavior in Global Stock Markets: An Intercontinental Comparison," Papers 1308.3966, arXiv.org.
    4. Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling & Ulrich Schmidt, 2010. "Are All Professional Investors Sophisticated?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 418-440, November.
    5. repec:eee:phsmap:v:505:y:2018:i:c:p:945-964 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fang Cai & Song Han & Dan Li, 2012. "Institutional herding in the corporate bond market," International Finance Discussion Papers 1071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Brounen, Dirk & Kok, Nils & Ling, David C., 2012. "Shareholder composition, share turnover, and returns in volatile markets: The case of international REITs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1867-1889.
    8. Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei & Yang, Tung-Hsiao, 2015. "Herd behavior and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 763-770.
    9. Jared DeLisle, R. & Morscheck, J.D. & Nofsinger, John R., 2014. "Share repurchases and institutional supply," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 216-230.
    10. Jakša Krišto & Alen Stojanović & Hrvoje Filipović, 2015. "Systemic risk of UCITS investment funds and financial market stability tested using MRS model," EFZG Working Papers Series 1508, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    11. Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick & Walter, Andreas, 2014. "Measuring mutual fund herding – A structural approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 219-239.
    12. Edelen, Roger M. & Ince, Ozgur S. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 2016. "Institutional investors and stock return anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 472-488.
    13. repec:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9405-y is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ian Koetsier & Jacob Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," DNB Working Papers 569, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Zheng, Dazhi & Li, Huimin & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2015. "Herding behavior in institutional investors: Evidence from China’s stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 59-76.
    16. Choi, Nicole & Sias, Richard W., 2009. "Institutional industry herding," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 469-491, December.
    17. Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea, 2008. "Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 83-113, November.
    18. Hung, Weifeng & Huang, Sheng-Tang & Lu, Chia-Chi & Liu, Nathan, 2015. "Trading behavior and stock returns in Japan," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-212.
    19. Jiang, Hao, 2010. "Institutional investors, intangible information, and the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 98-126, April.
    20. Fang Cai & Song Han & Dan Li & Yi Li, 2016. "Institutional Herding and Its Price Impact : Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-091, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0656-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Alex R. Horenstein, 2017. "Betting Against Alpha," Working Papers 2017-13, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    23. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:8-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Celiker, Umut & Chowdhury, Jaideep & Sonaer, Gokhan, 2015. "Do mutual funds herd in industries?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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