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Gambling on Momentum

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Ötting

    (Deparment of Business Administration and Economics and Department of Sport Science, Bielefeld University)

  • Christian Deutscher

    (Deparment of Business Administration and Economics and Department of Sport Science, Bielefeld University)

  • Carl Singleton

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Luca De Angelis

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna)

Abstract

Sports betting markets are proven real-world laboratories to test theories of asset pricing anomalies and risky behaviour. Using a high-frequency dataset provided directly by a major bookmaker, containing the odds and amounts staked throughout German Bundesliga football matches, we test for evidence of momentum in the betting and pricing behaviour after equalising goals. We find that bettors see value in teams that have the apparent momentum, staking about 40\% more on them than teams that just conceded an equaliser. Still, there is no evidence that such perceived momentum matters on average for match outcomes or is associated with the bookmaker offering favourable odds. We also confirm that betting on the apparent momentum would lead to substantial losses for bettors.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2022-10
    as

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    File URL: https://research.reading.ac.uk/economics/wp-content/uploads/sites/87/2022/11/emdp202210.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Marius Otting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Papers 2211.06052, arXiv.org.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
    2. Kevin Krieger & Justin L. Davis & James Strode, 2021. "Patience is a virtue: exploiting behavior bias in gambling markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 735-750, October.
    3. Bar-Eli, Michael & Krumer, Alex & Morgulev, Elia, 2020. "Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
    5. Durand, Robert B. & Patterson, Fernando M. & Shank, Corey A., 2021. "Behavioral biases in the NFL gambling market: Overreaction to news and the recency bias," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    6. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioural bias; Betting markets; Market efficiency; Momentum; Risk-taking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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