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Testing Contrarian Strategies in the National Football League

Author

Listed:
  • Bill M. Woodland

    (Eastern Michigan University)

  • Linda M. Woodland

    (Eastern Michigan University)

Abstract

There is evidence that stock market investors overreact to stocks that have been identified as winners and losers. This article examines whether contrarian strategies of selling (betting against) winners and buying (betting on) losers are successful in the gambling market for professional football. Contrary to the stock market, National Football League betting is found to be highly efficient. Because risk is constant for all football wagers, results support the argument that abnormal returns paid to contrarian stock market investors may be attributed to the higher risk incurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Bill M. Woodland & Linda M. Woodland, 2000. "Testing Contrarian Strategies in the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 187-193, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:1:y:2000:i:2:p:187-193
    DOI: 10.1177/152700250000100206
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Steven G. Sapra, 2008. "Evidence of Betting Market Intraseason Efficiency and Interseason Overreaction to Unexpected NFL Team Performance 1988-2006," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(5), pages 488-503, October.
    2. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    3. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2005. "Introduction to sports symposium," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(3), pages 382-384, September.
    4. Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.
    5. Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis & Andy Fodor, 2014. "Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 201-211, April.
    6. Yoon Tae Sung & Scott Tainsky, 2014. "The National Football League Wagering Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 365-384, August.
    7. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.
    8. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
      • Marius Otting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Papers 2211.06052, arXiv.org.
    9. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach & Brad Humphreys, 2014. "Bettor Belief in the “Hot Handâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(6), pages 636-649, December.
    10. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

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