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Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Davis
  • Andy Fodor
  • Luke McElfresh
  • Kevin Kreiger

Abstract

Past research has provided evidence of hindsight bias in the NFL wagering market. Too much emphasis is placed on a team’s performance in the previous season when placing bets on NFL games during the first week (Week 1) of the season. Building on this contribution, our study extends the examination of hindsight bias in NFL gaming markets by focusing on how bettors consider the information provided by Week 1 performance when betting in Week 2. Our findings suggest multiple market inefficiencies in the NFL gambling market in Week 2, providing the opportunity for profitable betting strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:53-67
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Krieger & Justin L. Davis & James Strode, 2021. "Patience is a virtue: exploiting behavior bias in gambling markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 735-750, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports Wagering; Efficient Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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