IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/buc/jpredm/v3y2009i2p21-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Rodney J. Paul

    (St. Bonaventure University)

  • Andrew P. Weinbach

    (Coastal Carolina University)

Abstract

The predictions of the traditional balanced-book sportsbook model and the alternative Levitt model of sportsbook behavior are tested using actual betting percentages on the favorite/underdog and over/under for NCAA Football. Sportsbooks are found to not balance betting dollars, which is in contradiction to the assumptions of the traditional models of sportsbook behavior. In the pointspread market, more bets are placed on the favorite in contests with road favorites and in games with higher pointspreads. In the totals market, more bets are placed on the over as the total increases and in games on television. Some support is found for the Levitt model of sportsbook behavior, as sportsbooks appear to price to maximize profits when the behavioral biases of bettors are clear, such as games with road favorites and games with the highest pointspreads and totals. In all other contests, however, the sportsbook appears to price as a forecast, as each proposition wins half of the time, even in the presence of betting imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 21-37, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:21-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ubpl/jpm/2009/00000003/00000002/art00002
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2013. "Consumption benefits and gambling: Evidence from the NCAA basketball betting market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-386.
    2. Kevin Krieger & Clay Girdner & Andy Fodor & David Kirch, 2013. "The Power Of Wagering On Power Conferences," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(1), pages 13-26.
    3. Kenneth Linna & Evan Moore & Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2014. "The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Jeremy Sandford & Paul Shea, 2013. "Optimal Setting of Point Spreads," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(317), pages 149-170, January.
    5. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2016. "Performance expectations and the tenure of head coaches: Evidence from NCAA football," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 482-492.
    6. Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2011. "CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations," Working Papers 2011-14, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    7. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2016. "Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 3-11, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EFFICIENT MARKETS; GAMBLING; SPORTS;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:21-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross). General contact details of provider: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.