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Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule

Author

Listed:
  • Rodney J. Paul

    (Saint Bonaventure University)

  • Andrew P. Weinbach

    (Clemson University)

Abstract

This article presents empirical tests of efficient markets on the professional football market for totals from 1979 through 2000. The forecast errors in the totals market were found to be skewed, so a test of a fair bet on National Football League totals was performed using a log likelihood ratio test as suggested by Evan and Noble. The under on the total is a winning proposition more than 50% of the time, but a fair bet cannot be rejected. A betting rule that looks at totals in the high end of the totals distribution and takes a contrarian strategy of betting unders for games that are 7,6, or 5 points above the mean is shown to violate a fair bet. Rejection of no profitability, when incorporating the take of the sportsbook, is also rejected for the highest of the totals.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2002. "Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(3), pages 256-263, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:3:y:2002:i:3:p:256-263
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Barry Pfitzner & Steven D. Lang & Tracy D. Rishel, 2009. "The Determinants of Scoring in NFL Games and Beating the Over/Under Line," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 40(1), pages 28-39.
    2. Ladd Kochman & Randy Goodwin, 2006. "An Under Bias in the Football Betting Market: Fact or Fiction?: A Note," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 37(1), pages 32-36.
    3. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P. & Wilson, Mark, 2004. "Efficient markets, fair bets, and profitability in NBA totals 1995-96 to 2001-02," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 624-632, September.
    4. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2007. "The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 199-211.
    5. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach & Kristin K. Paul, 2010. "Using Actual Betting Percentages to Analyze Sportsbook Behavior: The Canadian and Arena Football Leagues," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 41(1), pages 35-44.

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