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Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly

Author

Listed:
  • Jan van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

While sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data, straightforward betting procedures, and the finite duration of events. As a result, they are often analyzed for market efficiency and serve as a field laboratory for studying financial markets. This study examines 24 seasons of English Premier League matches, revealing consistent non-transitive patterns in match outcomes among various triads (groups of three clubs). These empirical findings are difficult to rationalize and represent a notable anomaly. Bookmakers ignore the non-transitive patterns when setting odds. Faced with a trade-off between efficiency using historical information and maintaining consistency, they prioritize consistency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250015
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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