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Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets

Author

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  • Hegarty, Tadgh
  • Whelan, Karl

Abstract

We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 17949, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17949
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Fortune's Formula or the Road to Ruin? The Generalized Kelly Criterion With Multiple Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 18060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Karl Whelan, 2024. "Risk aversion and favourite–longshot bias in a competitive fixed‐odds betting market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 188-209, January.
    5. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2024. "Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets," MPRA Paper 121382, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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