IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/18153.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Whelan, Karl
  • Hegarty, Tadgh

Abstract

The Asian Handicap is a way to bet on soccer matches where payouts depend on an adjustment to the score that favors the weaker team. These bets are more complex than traditional betting on soccer because they require assessing the likely goal difference in the match rather than just the probabilities of a home win, away win or draw and because they can feature the possibility of all or half the bet being refunded. We show that bettors systematically lose more money on the type of Asian Handicap bets where refunds are not possible than they do when it is possible to obtain a half refund and that bets with the possibility of a full refund have the lowest loss rates. Bookmakers do not appear to adjust odds to equate the expected return on these bets. We show that the pattern of differences in loss rates across bets is predictable based on the odds quoted.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP18153
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cashmore, Vanessa & Coster, Neil & Forrest, David & McHale, Ian & Buraimo, Babatunde, 2022. "Female jockeys - what are the odds?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 703-713.
    2. Heiss, Florian & Leive, Adam & McFadden, Daniel & Winter, Joachim, 2013. "Plan selection in Medicare Part D: Evidence from administrative data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1325-1344.
    3. Buhagiar, Ranier & Cortis, Dominic & Newall, Philip W.S., 2018. "Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 85-93.
    4. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    5. Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets," MPRA Paper 116925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Peter D. Lunn & Marek Bohacek, 2017. "Price transparency in residential electricity: Experiments for regulatory policy," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 1(2), pages 31-37, September.
    7. Montone, Maurizio, 2021. "Optimal pricing in the online betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 344-363.
    8. Carlin, Bruce I., 2009. "Strategic price complexity in retail financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 278-287, March.
    9. Ericson, Keith M. Marzilli & Starc, Amanda, 2016. "How product standardization affects choice: Evidence from the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 71-85.
    10. Kalaycı, Kenan, 2015. "Price complexity and buyer confusion in markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 154-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Thorp, S. & Bateman, H. & Dobrescu, L.I. & Newell, B.R. & Ortmann, A., 2020. "Flicking the switch: Simplifying disclosure to improve retirement plan choices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Ernst Fehr & Keyu Wu, 2021. "Obfuscation in competitive markets," ECON - Working Papers 391, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Feb 2023.
    4. Karl Whelan, 2024. "Risk aversion and favourite–longshot bias in a competitive fixed‐odds betting market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 188-209, January.
    5. Ioana Chioveanu & Jidong Zhou, 2013. "Price Competition with Consumer Confusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2450-2469, November.
    6. Jonathan Gruber, 2017. "Delivering Public Health Insurance through Private Plan Choice in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
    7. Leemore Dafny & Jonathan Gruber & Christopher Ody, 2014. "More Insurers Lower Premiums: Evidence from Initial Pricing in the Health Insurance Marketplaces," NBER Working Papers 20140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rasch, Alexander & Thöne, Miriam & Wenzel, Tobias, 2020. "Drip pricing and its regulation: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 353-370.
    9. Chioveanu, Ioana, 2019. "Prominence, complexity, and pricing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 551-582.
    10. David Winkelmann & Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting, 2021. "Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 3054-3064, June.
    11. McGowan, Féidhlim, 2018. "The roaming regulation and the case for applying behavioural industrial organisation to EU competition policy," Papers WP598, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Gu, Yiquan & Wenzel, Tobias, 2015. "Putting on a tight leash and levelling playing field: An experiment in strategic obfuscation and consumer protection," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 120-128.
    13. Paolo Crosetto & Alexia Gaudeul, 2014. "Choosing whether to compete: Price and format competition with consumer confusion," Jena Economics Research Papers 2014-026, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Paolo Crosetto & Alexia Gaudeul, 2017. "Choosing not to compete: Can firms maintain high prices by confusing consumers?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 897-922, December.
    15. Leemore Dafny & Jonathan Gruber & Christopher Ody, 2015. "More Insurers Lower Premiums: Evidence from Initial Pricing in the Health Insurance Marketplaces," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 53-81, Winter.
    16. M. Kate Bundorf & Maria Polyakova & Ming Tai-Seale, 2019. "How do Humans Interact with Algorithms? Experimental Evidence from Health Insurance," NBER Working Papers 25976, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Yiquan Gu & Tobias Wenzel, 2017. "Consumer confusion, obfuscation and price regulation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(2), pages 169-190, May.
    18. Merz, Oliver & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2021. "Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail: Are people affected by uninformative racehorse names?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    19. Chioveanu, Ioana, 2020. "A more general model of price complexity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Job Harms & S. Rosenkranz & M.W.J.L. Sanders, 2017. "Choice Complexity, Benchmarks and Costly Information," Working Papers 17-07, Utrecht School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.