IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v273y2019i2p721-730.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union

Author

Listed:
  • Scarf, Phil
  • Parma, Rishikesh
  • McHale, Ian

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in the framework of a “Poisson match”. We argue that increasing scoring rates in the hope of increasing entertainment may have a detrimental impact on the popularity of sport. The basis of our argument is that higher scoring-rates decrease outcome uncertainty. We use international rugby to demonstrate our findings and show that scoring rates have indeed increased significantly over the previous half-century in this sport. Therefore, administrators should recognise our general point and we suggest that rugby union administrators in particular ought to consider the introduction of new laws to reduce scoring-rates. Scenarios in which the scoring-rate is radically reduced are illustrated through a simulation of the Rugby World Cup tournament.

Suggested Citation

  • Scarf, Phil & Parma, Rishikesh & McHale, Ian, 2019. "On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 721-730.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:273:y:2019:i:2:p:721-730
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221718307161
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty in the English Premier League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(5), pages 625-644, June.
    2. Scarf, Philip & Yusof, Muhammad Mat & Bilbao, Mark, 2009. "A numerical study of designs for sporting contests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 190-198, October.
    3. Baker, Rose D. & McHale, Ian G., 2013. "Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 122-130.
    4. P. A. Scarf & M. M. Yusof, 2011. "A numerical study of tournament structure and seeding policy for the soccer World Cup Finals," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 43-57, February.
    5. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    6. Lee Yoong Hon & Rasyad A. Parinduri, 2016. "Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 377-395, May.
    7. Bizzozero, Paolo & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2016. "The importance of suspense and surprise in entertainment demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 47-63.
    8. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    9. Dries Goossens & Jeroen Beliën & Frits Spieksma, 2012. "Comparing league formats with respect to match importance in Belgian football," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 223-240, April.
    10. N. H. Bingham & Rudiger Kiesel & Rafael Schmidt, 2003. "A semi-parametric approach to risk management," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 426-441.
    11. Jeffrey Ely & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2015. "Suspense and Surprise," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 215-260.
    12. Koning, Ruud H. & Koolhaas, Michael & Renes, Gusta & Ridder, Geert, 2003. "A simulation model for football championships," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 268-276, July.
    13. Boshnakov, Georgi & Kharrat, Tarak & McHale, Ian G., 2017. "A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 458-466.
    14. Kendall, Graham & Lenten, Liam J.A., 2017. "When sports rules go awry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(2), pages 377-394.
    15. Kuchar Robert & Andy Martin, 2016. "The Comparison Of Competitive Balance Between Super Rugby (Sanzar) And English Premiership Rugby: A Case Study From 1996-2014 Season Or Not Attractive – No People – No Money," International Journal of Entrepreneurial Knowledge, Center for International Scientific Research of VSO and VSPP, vol. 4(1), pages 112-129, June.
    16. Baker, Rose D. & McHale, Ian G., 2018. "Time-varying ratings for international football teams," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 659-666.
    17. Wright, Mike, 2014. "OR analysis of sporting rules – A survey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 1-8.
    18. Babatunde Buraimo & Rob Simmons, 2015. "Uncertainty of Outcome or Star Quality? Television Audience Demand for English Premier League Football," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 449-469, November.
    19. Liam J. A. Lenten & Niven Winchester, 2015. "Secondary Behavioural Incentives: Bonus Points and Rugby Professionals," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(294), pages 386-398, September.
    20. Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
    21. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    22. Vincent Hogan & Patrick Massey & Shane Massey, 2013. "Competitive Balance and Match Attendance in European Rugby Union Leagues," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(4), pages 425-446.
    23. P. Owen & Michael Ryan & Clayton Weatherston, 2007. "Measuring Competitive Balance in Professional Team Sports Using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 31(4), pages 289-302, December.
    24. Ian McHale & Phil Scarf, 2007. "Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 61(4), pages 432-445, November.
    25. A K Suzuki & L E B Salasar & J G Leite & F Louzada-Neto, 2010. "A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes: The 2006 (Association) Football World Cup," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1530-1539, October.
    26. M. J. Maher, 1982. "Modelling association football scores," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 36(3), pages 109-118, September.
    27. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Patrick Massey & Shane Massey, 2014. "Analysing Match Attendance in the European Rugby Cup," Working Papers 201412, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    28. Joshua Utt & Rodney Fort, 2002. "Pitfalls to Measuring Competitive Balance With Gini Coefficients," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 367-373, November.
    29. Winchester Niven, 2008. "Shifting the 'Goal Posts': Optimizing the Allocation of Competition Points for Sporting Contests," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-17, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Encarnación Algaba & Stefano Moretti & Eric Rémila & Philippe Solal, 2021. "Lexicographic solutions for coalitional rankings," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(4), pages 817-849, November.
    2. Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Tohmé & Fernando Delbianco & Alejandro Neme, 2021. "Effort of rugby teams according to the bonus point system: a theoretical and empirical analysis," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 50(2), pages 447-474, June.
    3. Buraimo, Babatunde & Forrest, David & McHale, Ian G. & Tena, J.D., 2022. "Armchair fans: Modelling audience size for televised football matches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 644-655.
    4. L'aszl'o Csat'o & D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy, 2020. "Bibliometric indices as a measure of performance and competitive balance in the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League," Papers 2005.13416, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    5. Collingwood, James A.P. & Wright, Michael & Brooks, Roger J., 2023. "Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1286-1299.
    6. Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Delbianco & Fernando Tohmé, 2023. "The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(3), pages 715-731, September.
    7. Craig, J. Dean & Winchester, Niven, 2021. "Predicting the national football league potential of college quarterbacks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 733-743.
    8. Michal Friesl & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2020. "Fixing ice hockey’s low scoring flip side? Just flip the sides," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 27-45, September.
    9. Avila-Cano, Antonio & Owen, P. Dorian & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco, 2023. "Measuring competitive balance in sports leagues that award bonus points, with an application to rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 939-952.
    10. Singh, Aaditya & Scarf, Phil & Baker, Rose, 2023. "A unified theory for bivariate scores in possessive ball-sports: The case of handball," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1099-1112.
    11. Gyimesi, András, 2021. "Hosszú távú versenyegyensúly egy csapatsportliga közgazdasági modelljében [Long-term competitive balance in an economic model of a team sports league]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 585-616.
    12. Fry John & Smart Oliver & Serbera Jean-Philippe & Klar Bernhard, 2021. "A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 67-75, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. László Csató, 2020. "Optimal Tournament Design: Lessons From the Men’s Handball Champions League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(8), pages 848-868, December.
    2. Avila-Cano, Antonio & Owen, P. Dorian & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco, 2023. "Measuring competitive balance in sports leagues that award bonus points, with an application to rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 939-952.
    3. Csató, László, 2023. "How to avoid uncompetitive games? The importance of tie-breaking rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1260-1269.
    4. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2015. "Competitive Balance Measures In Sports Leagues: The Effects Of Variation In Season Length," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 731-744, January.
    5. repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Antonio Avila-Cano & Amparo Ruiz-Sepulveda & Francisco Triguero-Ruiz, 2021. "Identifying the Maximum Concentration of Results in Bilateral Sports Competitions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, June.
    7. László Csató, 2022. "How to design a multi-stage tournament when some results are carried over?," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 44(3), pages 683-707, September.
    8. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2017. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for International Football Games: Evidence From the German TV Market," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 31-45, January.
    10. Dagaev Dmitry & Rudyak Vladimir Yu., 2019. "Seeding the UEFA Champions League participants: evaluation of the reforms," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 129-140, June.
    11. Chater, Mario & Arrondel, Luc & Gayant, Jean-Pascal & Laslier, Jean-François, 2021. "Fixing match-fixing: Optimal schedules to promote competitiveness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 673-683.
    12. Corona, Francisco & Forrest, David & Tena, J.D. & Wiper, Michael, 2019. "Bayesian forecasting of UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 722-732.
    13. Geenens, Gery, 2014. "On the decisiveness of a game in a tournament," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 156-168.
    14. Jiří LahviÄ ka, 2015. "The Impact of Playoffs on Seasonal Uncertainty in the Czech Ice Hockey Extraliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 784-801, October.
    15. Guironnet, Jean-Pascal, 2023. "Competitive intensity and industry performance of professional sports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Patrick Massey, 2020. "Professional Rugby on the Celtic Fringe," Working Papers 202003, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2019. "U.S. Demand for European Soccer Telecasts: A Between-Country Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 797-818, August.
    18. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga," MPRA Paper 44608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Csató, László, 2022. "Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 717-726.
    20. András Gyimesi, 2020. "League Ranking Mobility Affects Attendance: Evidence From European Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(8), pages 808-828, December.
    21. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Ian G. McHale & J.D. Tena, 2020. "Unscripted Drama: Soccer Audience Response To Suspense, Surprise, And Shock," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 881-896, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:273:y:2019:i:2:p:721-730. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.