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Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga

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  • Lahvicka, Jiri

Abstract

In the top Czech ice hockey competition “Extraliga”, 14 geographically close teams compete during a regular season in a pure round-robin tournament. However, the eventual champion is determined in the additional playoff stage; the regular season just decides which teams qualify for the playoffs and how these teams are seeded. This paper uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show that although the additional playoff stage heavily favors higher-seeded teams and consists of a lot of matches, it lowers the probability of the best team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga," MPRA Paper 44608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44608
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44608/1/MPRA_paper_44608.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo; ice hockey; tournament design;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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