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Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga

  • Lahvicka, Jiri

In the top Czech ice hockey competition “Extraliga”, 14 geographically close teams compete during a regular season in a pure round-robin tournament. However, the eventual champion is determined in the additional playoff stage; the regular season just decides which teams qualify for the playoffs and how these teams are seeded. This paper uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show that although the additional playoff stage heavily favors higher-seeded teams and consists of a lot of matches, it lowers the probability of the best team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44608/1/MPRA_paper_44608.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44608.

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Date of creation: 27 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44608
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  1. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
  2. Pawlowski, Tim & Budzinski, Oliver, 2012. "The (monetary) value of competitive balance for sport consumers: A stated preferences approach to European professional football," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 77, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
  3. Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad, 2011. "Game Attendance and Competitive Balance in the National Hockey League," Working Papers 2011-8, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  4. P. A. Scarf & M. M. Yusof, 2011. "A numerical study of tournament structure and seeding policy for the soccer World Cup Finals," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 43-57, 02.
  5. Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F69-84, February.
  6. Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
  7. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
  8. SZYMANSKI, Stefan & KÉSENNE, Stefan, 2003. "Competitive balance and gate revenue sharing in team sports," Working Papers 2003003, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  9. Scarf, Philip & Yusof, Muhammad Mat & Bilbao, Mark, 2009. "A numerical study of designs for sporting contests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 190-198, October.
  10. Thomas Andrew C, 2007. "Inter-arrival Times of Goals in Ice Hockey," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, July.
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