IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v69y2025i6d10.1007_s00181-025-02838-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomaly

Author

Listed:
  • Jan C. van Ours

    (Erasmus School of Economics
    Tinbergen Institute
    Erasmus Center for Applied Sports Economics
    CEPR)

Abstract

Sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets. However, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data. As a result, they often serve as a field laboratory for studying financial markets. This study examines 25 seasons of English Premier League matches, revealing consistent nontransitive patterns in match outcomes among various triads (groups of three clubs). These empirical findings are difficult to rationalize and represent a notable anomaly. Bookmakers ignore the non-transitive patterns when setting odds. Faced with a trade-off between efficiency using historical information and maintaining consistency when setting their odds, they prioritize consistency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomaly," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 4057-4087, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:69:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02838-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02838-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-025-02838-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-025-02838-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:69:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02838-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.