On the decisiveness of a game in a tournament
In sport tournaments in which teams are matched two at a time, it is useful for a variety of reasons to be able to quantify how important a particular game is. The need for such quantitative information has been addressed in the literature by several more or less simple measures of game importance. In this paper, we point out some of the drawbacks of those measures and we propose a different approach, which rather targets how decisive a game is with respect to the final victory. We give a definition of this idea of game decisiveness in terms of the uncertainty about the eventual winner prevailing in the tournament at the time of the game. As this uncertainty is strongly related to the notion of entropy of a probability distribution, our decisiveness measure is based on entropy-related concepts. We study the suggested decisiveness measure on two real tournaments, the 1988 NBA Championship Series and the UEFA 2012 European Football Championship (Euro 2012), and we show how well it agrees with what intuition suggests. Finally, we also use our decisiveness measure to objectively analyse the recent UEFA decision to expand the European Football Championship from 16 to 24 nations in the future, in terms of the overall attractiveness of the competition.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- B Buraimo & D Forrest & R Simmons, 2004.
"Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience,"
542822, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Audas, Rick & Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2002. "The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 633-650.
- Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-98, June.
- Scarf, Philip & Yusof, Muhammad Mat & Bilbao, Mark, 2009. "A numerical study of designs for sporting contests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 190-198, October.
- Vecer Jan & Ichiba Tomoyuki & Laudanovic Mladen, 2007. "On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-23, July.
- Vani K. Borooah & John Mangan, 2012. "Measuring competitive balance in sports using generalized entropy with an application to English premier league football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1093-1102, March.
- de Dios Tena, Juan & Forrest, David, 2007. "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 362-373, August.
- Geenens Gery, 2010. "Who Deserved the 2008-2009 Belgian Football Champion Title? A Semiparametric Answer," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-31, October.
- Guillermo Villa & Isabel Molina & Roland Fried, 2011. "Modeling attendance at Spanish professional football league," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 1189-1206, April.
- P. A. Scarf & M. M. Yusof, 2011. "A numerical study of tournament structure and seeding policy for the soccer World Cup Finals," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 43-57, 02.
- Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 242.
- Robert J. Lemke & Matthew Leonard & Kelebogile Tlhokwane, 2010. "Estimating Attendance at Major League Baseball Games for the 2007 Season," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 316-348, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:232:y:2014:i:1:p:156-168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.