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Modeling attendance at Spanish professional football league

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  • Guillermo Villa
  • Isabel Molina
  • Roland Fried

Abstract

Prediction of demand for professional sports is increasingly drawing the attention of economists. We apply linear mixed models for modeling attendance figures at Spanish professional football. We investigate economic variables, such as the price of the tickets or the size of the market, and sporting variables, such as the quality of a team or the level of competition within the league, as potential predictors of attendance. It turns out that a model with temporally correlated random team effects provides good forecasts of attendance at a time horizon of two seasons. Results from this model agree with economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Villa & Isabel Molina & Roland Fried, 2011. "Modeling attendance at Spanish professional football league," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 1189-1206, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:6:p:1189-1206
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2010.491859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Roger G. Noll, 2013. "Endogeneity in attendance demand models," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Stefan Késenne & Jaume García (ed.), The Econometrics of Sport, chapter 7, pages 117-134, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Marco Di Domizio & Raul Caruso, 2015. "Hooliganism and Demand for Football in Italy: Attendance and Counterviolence Policy Evaluation," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 123-137, May.
    3. Marhuenda, Yolanda & Molina, Isabel & Morales, Domingo, 2013. "Small area estimation with spatio-temporal Fay–Herriot models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-325.
    4. Geenens, Gery, 2014. "On the decisiveness of a game in a tournament," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 156-168.

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