Who Deserved the 2008-2009 Belgian Football Champion Title? A Semiparametric Answer
Football (soccer) is certainly the most popular sport in Belgium. In 2008-2009, the Belgian premier league (the so-called Jupiler Pro League) consisted of 18 teams, each having played others twice, home and away. Wins and draws earned 3 points and 1 point, respectively, and teams were first ranked by total points and then by total wins, regardless of the goal difference (or the number of goals scored), unlike in most European leagues. Obviously, the Belgian Champion should have been the team which had ended the season on top of the ranking, but a very unlikely event happened: the first two teams, Sporting Anderlecht and Standard Liege, completed the season with exactly the same number of points (77) and the same number of victories (24). Although the goal difference was in favor of Anderlecht, an extraordinary playoff match was hastily organized to decide the championship, and Standard ended up winning. That dramatic denouement sustained the discussions among the large football-lover part of the Belgian population and opens the interrogation: which team was really the best? The aim of this work is to objectively investigate this question through statistical modelling. Given the results of the whole season, a semiparametric model for the conditional probabilities of home win, tie and away win for each match, given the involved teams and other explanatory variables, is fit. The semiparametric nature of the model grants a great flexibility and allows us to identify interesting and up to now ignored patterns in the above probabilities. Then, a large number of Monte-Carlo simulations are run as if the season was replayed a large number of times, which permits the estimation of absolute probabilities of many events of possible interest. In particular, clear evidence about which team really deserved the 2008-2009 Belgian football champion title appears.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geenens, Gery & Simar, Léopold, 2010. "Nonparametric tests for conditional independence in two-way contingency tables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(4), pages 765-788, April.
- Klein, R.W. & Spady, R.H., 1991.
"An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models,"
70, Bell Communications - Economic Research Group.
- Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
- Koning, Ruud H. & Koolhaas, Michael & Renes, Gusta, 2001.
"A simulation model for football championships,"
01A65, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- Brillinger David R, 2007. "A Potential Function Approach to the Flow of Play in Soccer," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:6:y:2010:i:4:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.