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Crowd performance in prediction of the World Cup 2014

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  • O'Leary, Daniel E.

Abstract

This paper investigates the performance of the Yahoo crowd and experts in predicting the outcomes of matches in the World Cup in 2014. The analysis finds that the Yahoo crowd was statistically significantly better at predicting outcomes of matches than experts and very similar in performance to established betting odds. In addition, this paper finds that there was a statistically significant difference between the Yahoo crowd and a different crowd's performances, for the same task, suggesting that characteristics of the “crowd matter.” Finally, this paper finds that different crowdsourcing approaches apparently provide different results. Accordingly, it is important to specify the particular crowdsourcing approach, rather than simply “crowdsource.”

Suggested Citation

  • O'Leary, Daniel E., 2017. "Crowd performance in prediction of the World Cup 2014," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 715-724.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:260:y:2017:i:2:p:715-724
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.12.043
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    2. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    3. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James, 2019. "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1073-1081.
    4. Costa Sperb, L.F. & Sung, M.-C. & Ma, T. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2022. "Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(3), pages 1142-1157.
    5. Butler, David & Butler, Robert & Eakins, John, 2021. "Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 170-182.

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