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Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts

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  • Andersson, Patric
  • Edman, Jan
  • Ekman, Mattias

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  • Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:3:p:565-576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    2. Shanteau, James, 1992. "Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 252-266, November.
    3. Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    5. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1994. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 350-358, April.
    6. Keren, Gideon, 1987. "Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-114, February.
    7. Sundali, James A. & Atkins, Allen B., 1994. "Expertise in Investment Analysis: Fact or Fiction," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 223-241, August.
    8. Yates, J. Frank & McDaniel, Linda S. & Brown, Eric S., 1991. "Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 60-79, June.
    9. Davis, Fred D. & Lohse, Gerald L. & Kottemann, Jeffrey E., 1994. "Harmful effects of seemingly helpful information on forecasts of stock earnings," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 253-267, June.
    10. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
    11. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
    12. Andersson, Patric & Ekman, Mattias & Edman, Jan, 2003. "Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2003:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    13. Shanteau, James & Stewart, Thomas R., 1992. "Why study expert decision making? Some historical perspectives and comments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 95-106, November.
    14. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
    15. Onkal, Dilek & Yates, J. Frank & Simga-Mugan, Can & Oztin, Sule, 2003. "Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 169-185, July.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    17. Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
    2. Scheibehenne, Benjamin & Broder, Arndt, 2007. "Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 415-426.
    3. Michael Hanke & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Football championships and jersey sponsors’ stock prices: an empirical investigation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 228-241, March.
    4. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
    5. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
    7. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
    8. Alessandro Innocenti & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Importance of Betting Early," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 037, University of Siena.
    9. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
    10. Nilsson, Håkan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
    11. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    12. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
    13. Goldstein, Daniel G. & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2009. "Fast and frugal forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 760-772, October.
    14. Lennart Sjöberg, 2009. "Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1-18.

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