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Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts

  • Andersson, Patric
  • Edman, Jan
  • Ekman, Mattias
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 565-576

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:3:p:565-576
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    1. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
    2. Andersson, Patric & Ekman, Mattias & Edman, Jan, 2003. "Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2003:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    4. Shanteau, James & Stewart, Thomas R., 1992. "Why study expert decision making? Some historical perspectives and comments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 95-106, November.
    5. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1994. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 350-358, April.
    6. Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
    7. Keren, Gideon, 1987. "Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-114, February.
    8. Sundali, James A. & Atkins, Allen B., 1994. "Expertise in Investment Analysis: Fact or Fiction," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 223-241, August.
    9. Shanteau, James, 1992. "Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 252-266, November.
    10. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    11. Onkal, Dilek & Yates, J. Frank & Simga-Mugan, Can & Oztin, Sule, 2003. "Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 169-185, July.
    12. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    13. Yates, J. Frank & McDaniel, Linda S. & Brown, Eric S., 1991. "Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 60-79, June.
    14. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
    15. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
    16. Davis, Fred D. & Lohse, Gerald L. & Kottemann, Jeffrey E., 1994. "Harmful effects of seemingly helpful information on forecasts of stock earnings," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 253-267, June.
    17. Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
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