The Importance of Betting Early
We analyze more than 1,250,000 bets on Italian soccer league matches. Our findings show that bettors do not improve their performance as the season progresses. We obtain evidence that early bettors, who place bets the days before the match, performed better then late bettors, who place bets on the same day of the event. We attribute this outcome to the increase of noisy information released the last day impairing late bettors’ capacity to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last match result.
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