The Importance of Betting Early
We analyze more than 1,250,000 bets on Italian soccer league matches. Our findings show that bettors do not improve their performance as the season progresses. We obtain evidence that early bettors, who place bets the days before the match, performed better then late bettors, who place bets on the same day of the event. We attribute this outcome to the increase of noisy information released the last day impairing late bettors’ capacity to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last match result.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazza San Francesco 7, 53100 Siena|
Web page: http://www.depfid.unisi.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
- Asch, Peter & Malkiel, Burton G & Quandt, Richard E, 1984. "Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 165-75, April.
- Enrico Diecidue & Ulrich Schmidt & Peter P. Wakker, 2004. "The Utility of Gambling Reconsidered," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 241-259, December.
- Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2009. "Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-49, February.
- Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
- Davis, Fred D. & Lohse, Gerald L. & Kottemann, Jeffrey E., 1994. "Harmful effects of seemingly helpful information on forecasts of stock earnings," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 253-267, June.
- Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982.
"Strategic Information Transmission,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-51, November.
- Boeri, Tito & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Match rigging and the career concerns of referees," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 349-359, June.
- Conlisk, John, 1993. "The Utility of Gambling," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 255-75, June.
- Crafts, Nicholas F R, 1985. "Some Evidence of Insider Knowledge in Horse Race Betting in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(27), pages 295-304, August.
- Gerd Gigerenzer & Daniel G. Goldstein, 2011. "The recognition heuristic: A decade of research," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(1), pages 100-121, February.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
- Erik Angner, 2006. "Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
- Anthony Ziegelmeyer & Marie-HÈlËne Broihanne & FrÈdÈric Koessler, 2004. "Sequential Parimutuel Betting in the Laboratory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 165-186, 03.
- Goldstein, Daniel G. & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2009. "Fast and frugal forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 760-772, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usi:labsit:037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alessandro Innocenti)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.