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The Importance of Betting Early

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  • Alessandro Innocenti
  • Tommaso Nannicini
  • Roberto Ricciuti

Abstract

We analyze more than 1,250,000 bets on Italian soccer league matches. Our findings show that bettors do not improve their performance as the season progresses. We obtain evidence that early bettors, who place bets the days before the match, performed better then late bettors, who place bets on the same day of the event. We attribute this outcome to the increase of noisy information released the last day impairing late bettors’ capacity to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last match result.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Innocenti & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Importance of Betting Early," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 037, University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:labsit:037
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    1. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2017. "Behavioral Biases Never Walk Alone," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 99-125, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sport forecasting; information overload; betting; prediction methods.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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