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Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates

  • Onkal, Dilek
  • Yates, J. Frank
  • Simga-Mugan, Can
  • Oztin, Sule

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WP2-48VTFFK-F/2/b3bc3ac668e565db08fb5040793b24cd
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.

Volume (Year): 91 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 169-185

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:91:y:2003:i:2:p:169-185
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/obhdp

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  1. Terry Connolly & Doug Dean, 1997. "Decomposed Versus Holistic Estimates of Effort Required for Software Writing Tasks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(7), pages 1029-1045, July.
  2. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  3. Enis, Charles R., 1995. "Expert-novive judgments and new cue sets: Process versus outcome," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 641-662, December.
  4. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  5. Windschitl, Paul D., 2000. "The Binary Additivity of Subjective Probability Does not Indicate the Binary Complementarity of Perceived Certainty," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 195-225, March.
  6. Yates, J. Frank & McDaniel, Linda S. & Brown, Eric S., 1991. "Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 60-79, June.
  7. Price, Paul C., 1998. "Effects of a Relative-Frequency Elicitation Question on Likelihood Judgment Accuracy: The Case of External Correspondence, , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 277-297, December.
  8. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
  9. Yates, J. Frank & Price, Paul C. & Lee, Ju-Whei & Ramirez, James, 1996. "Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumer's' perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 41-56, March.
  10. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1994. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 350-358, April.
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