Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup
Before and during the 2010 Soccer World Cup, participants made probabilistic forecasts of the outcomes of the tournament. We examine the relationship between their depression levels and their performance at this forecasting task. Across two different waves of predictions and with multiple measures and components of prediction accuracy, we find that depressed forecasters were less accurate. The poorer accuracy amongst the more depressed forecasters was primarily driven by a neglect of base rate probabilities: the depressed participants assigned probabilities that departed from the base rates more substantially, particularly for low base rate events. Given the high incidence of depression in the workforce, the importance of judgmental probabilistic forecasting in many settings, and the fact that we may be the first to look at the depression-accuracy relationship using a real-world prediction task involving exogenous uncertainty, these findings may have important implications for both theory and practice.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
- Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L., 1992. "Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 435-455, March.
- Wright, George & Ayton, Peter, 1989. "Judgemental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 117-125.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- Camerer, Colin F, 1987. "Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 981-997, December.
- Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
- Yates, J. Frank & McDaniel, Linda S. & Brown, Eric S., 1991. "Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 60-79, June.
- Onkal, Dilek & Yates, J. Frank & Simga-Mugan, Can & Oztin, Sule, 2003. "Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 169-185, July.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
- Peter Ayton & Dilek Onkal & Lisa McReynolds, 2011. "Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(5), pages 381-391, July.
- Radzevick, Joseph R. & Moore, Don A., 2008. "Myopic biases in competitions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 206-218, November.
- Robert L. Winkler & Roy M. Poses, 1993. "Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(12), pages 1526-1543, December.
- Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
- Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
- Au, Kevin & Chan, Forrest & Wang, Denis & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2003. "Mood in foreign exchange trading: Cognitive processes and performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 322-338, July.
- Yates, J. Frank & Zhu, Ying & Ronis, David L. & Wang, Deng-Feng & Shinotsuka, Hiromi & Toda, Masanao, 1989. "Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 145-171, April.
- Huynh Huynh & Leonard S. Feldt, 1976. "Estimation of the Box Correction for Degrees of Freedom from Sample Data in Randomized Block and Split-Plot Designs," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, American Educational Research Association, vol. 1(1), pages 69-82, March.
- Scheibehenne, Benjamin & Broder, Arndt, 2007. "Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 415-426.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:1:p:69-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.