Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts
No abstract is available for this item.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
- Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015.
"Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
- Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2013. "Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF," Working Paper Series 1540, European Central Bank.
- A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Winkler & Javier Muñoz & José Cervera & José Bernardo & Gail Blattenberger & Joseph Kadane & Dennis Lindley & Allan Murphy & Robert Oliver & David Ríos-Insua, 1996. "Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 5(1), pages 1-60, June.
- Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
- Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
- Yates, J. Frank & Price, Paul C. & Lee, Ju-Whei & Ramirez, James, 1996. "Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumer's' perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 41-56, March.
- Clemen, Robert T. & Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L., 1995. "Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 133-145, March.
- Martin Kukuk & Michael Rönnberg, 2013. "Corporate credit default models: a mixed logit approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 467-483, April.
- Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
- Wolfgang Härdle & Zdeněk Hlávka & Gerhard Stahl, 2006. "On the appropriateness of inappropriate VaR models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(2), pages 273-297, June.
- Wolfgang Härdle & Zdenek Hlavka & Gerhard Stahl, 2006. "On the Appropriateness of Inappropriate VaR Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- D. Johnstone, 2007. "The Value of a Probability Forecast from Portfolio Theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 153-203, September.
- Abramson, Bruce & Brown, John & Edwards, Ward & Murphy, Allan & Winkler, Robert L., 1996. "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-71, March.
- Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C., 1997. "Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-526, December.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:7:y:1992:i:4:p:435-455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
Follow series, journals, authors & more
New papers by email
Subscribe to new additions to RePEc
Public profiles for Economics researchers
Various rankings of research in Economics & related fields
Who was a student of whom, using RePEc
Curated articles & papers on various economics topics
Upload your paper to be listed on RePEc and IDEAS
Blog aggregator for economics research
Cases of plagiarism in Economics
Job Market Papers
RePEc working paper series dedicated to the job market
Pretend you are at the helm of an economics department
Services from the StL Fed
Data, research, apps & more from the St. Louis Fed