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Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

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  • Yates, J. Frank
  • McDaniel, Linda S.
  • Brown, Eric S.

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  • Yates, J. Frank & McDaniel, Linda S. & Brown, Eric S., 1991. "Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 60-79, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:49:y:1991:i:1:p:60-79
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    Cited by:

    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
    2. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:2:p:163-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
    4. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
    5. Lambert, Jérôme & Bessière, Véronique & N’Goala, Gilles, 2012. "Does expertise influence the impact of overconfidence on judgment, valuation and investment decision?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1115-1128.
    6. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
    7. Enis, Charles R., 1995. "Expert-novive judgments and new cue sets: Process versus outcome," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 641-662, December.
    8. Wilkie, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C., 1996. "An application of probability judgement accuracy measures to currency forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-40, March.
    9. Onkal, Dilek & Yates, J. Frank & Simga-Mugan, Can & Oztin, Sule, 2003. "Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 169-185, July.
    10. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
    11. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
    12. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
    13. Lawrence, Michael & Sim, William, 1999. "Prototyping a financial DSS," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 445-450, August.
    14. Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C., 1997. "Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-526, December.
    15. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    16. Erik Angner, 2006. "Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
    17. Whitecotton, Stacey M. & Sanders, D. Elaine & Norris, Kathleen B., 1998. "Improving Predictive Accuracy with a Combination of Human Intuition and Mechanical Decision Aids," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 325-348, December.

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