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Information And Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets And Tipsters As Forecasters

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  • James Reade

Abstract

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Suggested Citation

  • James Reade, 2014. "Information And Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets And Tipsters As Forecasters," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(1), pages 43-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:8:y:2014:i:1:p:43-76
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    File URL: http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/865
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    Cited by:

    1. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
    2. Elaad, Guy & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2020. "Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    3. Butler, David & Butler, Robert & Eakins, John, 2021. "Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 170-182.
    4. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
    5. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    6. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Have Betting Exchanges Corrupted Horse Racing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(7), pages 673-697, October.
    7. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    8. Juan Enrique Gonzálvez-Vallés & José Daniel Barquero-Cabrero & David Caldevilla-Domínguez & Almudena Barrientos-Báez, 2021. "Tipsters and Addiction in Spain. Young People’s Perception of Influencers on Online Sports Gambling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-13, June.
    9. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James, 2019. "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1073-1081.
    10. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "When are prediction market prices most informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 420-428.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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