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Forecasting the winner of a tennis match

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  • Klaassen, Franc J. G. M.
  • Magnus, Jan R.

Abstract

We propose a method to forecast the winner of a tennis match, not only at the beginning of the match, but also (and in particular) during the match.The method is based on a fast and exible computer program TENNISPROB, and on a statistical analysis of a large data set from Wimbledon, both at match and at point level.
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Suggested Citation

  • Klaassen, Franc J. G. M. & Magnus, Jan R., 2003. "Forecasting the winner of a tennis match," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 257-267, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:148:y:2003:i:2:p:257-267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
    2. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
    3. Lebovic, James H. & Sigelman, Lee, 2001. "The forecasting accuracy and determinants of football rankings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 105-120.
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    Cited by:

    1. Netanel Nissim & Aner Sela, 2017. "The Third Place Game," Working Papers 1709, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    2. Kovalchik Stephanie Ann, 2016. "Searching for the GOAT of tennis win prediction," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 127-138, September.
    3. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630, April.
    4. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-RodrĂ­guez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
    5. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:1:d:10.1057_jors.2008.170 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Christian Groh & Benny Moldovanu & Aner Sela & Uwe Sunde, 2012. "Optimal seedings in elimination tournaments," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 59-80.
    7. Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
    8. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630.
    9. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Nickolaos, 2012. "Evaluating professional tennis players’ career performance: A Data Envelopment Analysis approach," MPRA Paper 41516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Anthony Glass & Karligash Kenjegalieva & Jason Taylor, 2015. "Game, set and match: evaluating the efficiency of male professional tennis players," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 119-131, April.
    11. Klaassen, Franc J.G.M. & Magnus, Jan R., 2009. "The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 72-85, January.
    12. Jennifer Brown & Dylan B. Minor, 2011. "Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments," NBER Working Papers 17639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Matthew Amor & William Griffiths, 2003. "Modelling the Behaviour and Performance of Australian Football Tipsters," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 871, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Easton, Stephen & Uylangco, Katherine, 2010. "Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 564-575, July.

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