IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpio/0508001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments

Author

Listed:
  • Ferda HALICIOGLU

    (The University of Greenwich)

Abstract

This study aims at predicting the most likely winners of international football tournaments. To this end, this paper employs a relatively simple statistical method, which is based on the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points from domestic football leagues to measure the degree of competitive balance and to use it as a comparative indicator between the contesting countries in international football tournaments. The seasonal CV values computed from over ten seasons of the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000 and 2004 football tournaments were utilized to predict the outcome of these football tournaments. The results based on the short, mid and long-term seasonal CV values suggest that this forecasting approach provides significantly reliable results in the case of Euro 2000 but not in the case of Euro 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0508001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/io/papers/0508/0508001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. M. Dobson & J. A. Goddard, 1996. "The Demand for Football in the Regions of England and Wales," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 443-453.
    2. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "The Degree Of Competition In The European Football Leagues: A Statistical Approach," Others 0508001, EconWPA.
    3. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    4. Sauer, Raymond D, et al, 1988. "Hold Your Bets: Another Look at the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 206-213, February.
    5. Andrew S. Zimbalist, 2002. "Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues: An Introduction," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 111-121, May.
    6. Martin B. Schmidt & David J. Berri, 2001. "Competitive Balance and Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(2), pages 145-167, May.
    7. Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-1386, December.
    8. Raymond Stefani, 1997. "Survey of the major world sports rating systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 635-646.
    9. repec:fth:geneec:00.04 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jean-Marc Falter & Christophe Perignon, 2000. "Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1757-1765.
    11. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
    12. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-198, June.
    13. Stefan Szymanski & Stefan KÈsenne, 2004. "Competitive balance and gate revenue sharing in team sports," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 165-177, March.
    14. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2002. "The Determinants of Football Match Attendance Revisited," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 18-38, February.
    15. repec:lan:wpaper:3620 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:3618 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:3726 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 69-84, February.
    19. Mark Baimbridge, 1997. "Match attendance at Euro 96: was the crowd waving or drowning?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 555-558.
    20. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-333, August.
    21. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
    22. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
    23. El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-1319, Nov.-Dec..
    24. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-1261, December.
    25. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Assessment: The Economics of Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 467-477, Winter.
    26. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-249, August.
    27. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-331.
    28. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert & Feehan, Patrick, 2002. "A Spatial Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Elasticity of Demand for Soccer," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(3), pages 336-355, August.
    29. Benno Torgler, 2004. "The Economics of the FIFA Football Worldcup," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 287-300, May.
    30. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    31. Robert Houston & Dennis Wilson, 2002. "Income, leisure and proficiency: an economic study of football performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 939-943.
    32. Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Economics of Sport: Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 1-3, February.
    33. repec:lan:wpaper:4011 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
    35. Lebovic, James H. & Sigelman, Lee, 2001. "The forecasting accuracy and determinants of football rankings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 105-120.
    36. Thomas Hoehn & Stefan Szymanski, 1999. "The Americanization of European football," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(28), pages 203-240, April.
    37. Robert Hoffmann & Lee Chew Ging & Bala Ramasamy, 2002. "The Socio-Economic Determinants of International Soccer Performance," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5, pages 253-272, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Competitive balance; Football; Ranking; UEFA; Sports forecasts.;

    JEL classification:

    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0508001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.