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Testing the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European Professional Football


  • Tim Pawlowski

    () (Institute of Sport Economics and Sport Management, German Sport University, Cologne, Germany)


Previous research based on revealed preferences cannot assess whether (increasingly imbalanced) football competitions might be at risk of moving into territory where consumer demand will fall off as suggested by the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Therefore, this article provides a subsequent examination of the relationship between perceived balance (in a number of dimensions) and intention to consume based on a stated preference approach in Germany. The estimated demand functions reveal that around 70% of fans care about competitive balance in the German Bundesliga but the league is not close to any tipping point at present.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Pawlowski, 2013. "Testing the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European Professional Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 341-367, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:14:y:2013:i:4:p:341-367

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    Cited by:

    1. Babatunde Buraimo & Rob Simmons, 2015. "Uncertainty of Outcome or Star Quality? Television Audience Demand for English Premier League Football," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 449-469, November.
    2. Jigyu Chung & Young Hoon Lee & Joon-Ho Kang, 2016. "Ex Ante and Ex Post Expectations of Outcome Uncertainty and Baseball Television Viewership," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(8), pages 790-812, December.
    3. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Does Match Uncertainty Increase Attendance? A Non-Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 48571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lucas M. Besters & Jan (J.C.) van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2018. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-082/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    7. Tim Pawlowski & Oliver Budzinski, 2013. "The Monetary Value of Competitive Balance for Sport Consumers: A Stated Preference Approach to European Professional Football," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 8(2), pages 112-123, May.
    8. Scelles, Nicolas (Сели, Николя) & Duran, Christophe (Дюра, Кристоф) & Bonnal, Liliane (Бонналь, Лилиан) & Goyeau, Daniel (Гойюс, Даниэль) & Andreff, Wladimir (Андрефф, Владимир), 2016. "Do all sporting prizes have a significant positive impact on attendance in a European national football league? Competitive intensity in the French Ligue 1 [Действительно Ли Все Спортивные Призы Ок," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 82-107, June.
    9. Pawlowski, Tim & Budzinski, Oliver, 2014. "Competitive balance and attention level effects: Theoretical considerations and preliminary evidence," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 84, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    10. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    11. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    12. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    13. Budzinski, Oliver & Pawlowski, Tim, 2014. "The behavioural economics of competitive balance: Implications for league policy and championship management," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 89, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    14. Petr A. Parshakov & Kseniya O. Baydina, 2017. "Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football," HSE Working papers WP BRP 163/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. András Gyimesi, 2020. "League Ranking Mobility Affects Attendance: Evidence From European Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(8), pages 808-828, December.
    16. Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Julio del Corral & R. Todd Jewell & Jorge García-Unanue & Cornel Nesseler, 2019. "A Prospective Analysis of Competitive Balance Levels in Major League Soccer," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 54(1), pages 175-190, February.
    17. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2016. "A Bias-Corrected Estimator of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Working Papers 1611, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    18. Tim Pawlowski & Georgios Nalbantis, 2015. "Competition format, championship uncertainty and stadium attendance in European football - a small league perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(38), pages 4128-4139, August.
    19. Jiří LahviÄ ka, 2015. "The Impact of Playoffs on Seasonal Uncertainty in the Czech Ice Hockey Extraliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 784-801, October.
    20. Tim Pawlowski & Georgios Nalbantis & Dennis Coates, 2018. "Perceived Game Uncertainty, Suspense And The Demand For Sport," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 173-192, January.
    21. Besters, Lucas M. & van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin A., 2019. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 117-127.


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