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Do Soccer Associations Really Spend On A Good Thing? Empirical Evidence On Heterogeneity In The Consumer Response To Match Uncertainty Of Outcome

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  • MEN‐ANDRI BENZ
  • LEIF BRANDES
  • EGON FRANCK

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze whether previous results describing the effect of uncertainty of outcome on match attendance in team sports have been driven by heterogeneity in fan demand. We apply censored quantile regression methods and place particular emphasis on the relationship between match uncertainty and attendance demand, as previous results are highly ambiguous. This is more surprising, as each season association and league officials continue to spend millions on enhancing this uncertainty. We also control for season ticket holders, who are unlikely to be influenced by match specificities. Based on data from German soccer, our results indicate that fan demand shows heterogeneity across quantiles and that increasing match uncertainty of outcome exclusively benefits teams who already face strong attendance demand. (JEL D12, C14, C24, L83)

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  • Men‐Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2009. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend On A Good Thing? Empirical Evidence On Heterogeneity In The Consumer Response To Match Uncertainty Of Outcome," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 216-235, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:27:y:2009:i:2:p:216-235
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2008.00127.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2008.00127.x
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    1. Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2012. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 262-277, June.
    2. Luc Arrondel & Richard Duhautois, 2019. "Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty?," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 513, pages 5-26.
    3. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    4. Sung, Hojun & Mills, Brian M., 2018. "Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 519-532.
    5. Dominik Schreyer & Benno Torgler, 2021. "Football spectator no-show behavior in Switzerland: Empirical evidence from season ticket holder behavior," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-06, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    6. Hauke A. Wetzel & Stefan Hattula & Maik Hammerschmidt & Harald J. Heerde, 2018. "Building and leveraging sports brands: evidence from 50 years of German professional soccer," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 591-611, July.
    7. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2013. "Any Given Sunday: How Season Ticket Holders' Time of Stadium Entrance Is Influenced by Outcome Uncertainty," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-21, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    8. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2013. "Consumption benefits and gambling: Evidence from the NCAA basketball betting market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-386.
    9. Wen-Jhan Jane, 2014. "The Relationship Between Outcome Uncertainties and Match Attendance: New Evidence in the National Basketball Association," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(2), pages 177-200, September.
    10. Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Philipp Theiler, 2013. "The group size and loyalty of football fans: a two-stage estimation procedure to compare customer potentials across teams," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 347-369, February.
    11. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2010. "Attendance of ice hockey matches in the Czech Extraliga," MPRA Paper 27653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2012. "Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance," Working Papers 2012-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    13. Stefan Szymanski & Jason Winfree, 2018. "On The Optimal Realignment Of A Contest: The Case Of College Football," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 483-496, January.
    14. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    15. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    16. Brown, Katie M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "NCAA football television viewership: Product quality and consumer preference relative to market expectations," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 377-390.
    17. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2012. "Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League," MPRA Paper 40998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Petr A. Parshakov & Kseniya O. Baydina, 2017. "Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football," HSE Working papers WP BRP 163/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    21. Pawlowski, Tim & Budzinski, Oliver, 2014. "Competitive balance and attention level effects: Theoretical considerations and preliminary evidence," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 84, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    22. Budzinski, Oliver & Pawlowski, Tim, 2014. "The behavioural economics of competitive balance: Implications for league policy and championship management," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 89, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    23. Budzinski, Oliver & Feddersen, Arne, 2015. "Grundlagen der Sportnachfrage: Theorie und Empirie der Einflussfaktoren auf die Zuschauernachfrage," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 94, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    24. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Does Match Uncertainty Increase Attendance? A Non-Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 48571, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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