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On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Alavy

    (Initiative Futures)

  • Alison Gaskell

    (Initiative Futures)

  • Stephanie Leach

    (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College)

  • Stefan Szymanski

    (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the demand for English football on television and outcome uncertainty. It tests the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis by using minute-by-minute television viewership figures which avoids the problems encountered when estimating demand using match attendance. We find that although uncertainty matters, it is the progression of the match which drives viewership and as a draw looks increasingly likely, viewers are likely to switch channels. Games that end in victories have a higher average viewership than games that end in stalemates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2006. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Working Papers 0631, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0631
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Nuesch & Egon Franck, 2009. "The Role of Patriotism in Explaining the TV Audience of National Team Games—Evidence From Four International Tournaments," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 6-19.
    2. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
    3. Peter Dawson & Paul Downward, 2011. "Participation, Spectatorship and Media Coverage in Sport: Some Initial Insights," Chapters, in: Wladimir Andreff (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Scott Tainsky & Monika Stodolska, 2010. "Population Migration and Team Loyalty in Professional Sports," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(3), pages 801-815, September.
    5. repec:eid:wpaper:24/09 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:3966 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:3575 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & Dennis P. Wilson, 2011. "When Going in Circles is Going Backward: Outcome Uncertainty in NASCAR," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 253-283, June.
    9. Arne Feddersen & Armin Rott, 2011. "Determinants of Demand for Televised Live Football: Features of the German National Football Team," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 352-369, June.
    10. repec:lan:wpaper:3573 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:lan:wpaper:3681 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. P M Dawson & P Downward, 2009. "Participation, Spectatorship and Media Coverage in Sport," Department of Economics Working Papers 24/09, University of Bath, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    competitive balance; sports leagues; football; soccer; television;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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