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On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Alavy

    (Initiative Futures)

  • Alison Gaskell

    (Initiative Futures)

  • Stephanie Leach

    () (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College)

  • Stefan Szymanski

    () (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the demand for English football on television and outcome uncertainty. It tests the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis by using minute-by-minute television viewership figures which avoids the problems encountered when estimating demand using match attendance. We find that although uncertainty matters, it is the progression of the match which drives viewership and as a draw looks increasingly likely, viewers are likely to switch channels. Games that end in victories have a higher average viewership than games that end in stalemates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2006. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Working Papers 0631, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0631
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Wladimir Andreff & Gaël Raballand, 2011. "Is European Football’s Future to Become a Boring Game?," Chapters,in: Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Babatunde Buraimo, 2014. "Spectator demand and attendances in English league football," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 4, pages 60-72 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Petr A. Parshakov & Kseniya O. Baydina, 2017. "Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football," HSE Working papers WP BRP 163/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Tainsky, Scott & Kerwin, Shannon & Xu, Jie & Zhou, Yilun, 2014. "Will the real fans please remain seated? Gender and television ratings for pre-game and game broadcasts," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 190-204.
    5. Sung, Hojun & Mills, Brian M. & Tainsky, Scott, 2017. "From schadenfreude to mitfreude? Estimating viewership loss and rivalrous relationships in otherwise neutral markets," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 159-169.
    6. Raul Caruso & Marco Di Domizio, 2015. "La Serie A In Televisione E Allo Stadio: Presentazione Del Dataset Audiball 1.0," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 11(1), pages 161-185, maggio.
    7. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    8. Wladimir Andreff (ed.), 2011. "Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14146.
    9. Bizzozero, Paolo & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2016. "The importance of suspense and surprise in entertainment demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 47-63.
    10. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
    11. Caruso, Raul & Addesa, Francesco & Di Domizio, Marco, 2016. "The Determinants Of The TV Demand Of Soccer: Empirical Evidence On Italian Serie A For The Period 2008-2015," MPRA Paper 70189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Paul Downward, 2014. "English professional football," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 17, pages 277-297 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Grimshaw Scott D. & Burwell Scott J., 2014. "Choosing the most popular NFL games in a local TV market," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, September.
    14. Grimshaw Scott D. & Sabin R. Paul & Willes Keith M., 2013. "Analysis of the NCAA Men’s Final Four TV audience," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 115-126, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    competitive balance; sports leagues; football; soccer; television;

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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