IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v12y2011i3p253-283.html

When Going in Circles is Going Backward: Outcome Uncertainty in NASCAR

Author

Listed:
  • Jason P. Berkowitz

    (Department of Finance, UNC Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA)

  • Craig A. Depken II

    (Department of Economics, UNC Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA, cdepken@uncc.edu)

  • Dennis P. Wilson

    (Department of Economics, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA)

Abstract

Using data from the 2007, 2008, and 2009 National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing (NASCAR) seasons, this article shows that the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis pertains to both race attendance and television audience, with the former only responding to season-level uncertainty and the latter responding to both race-level and season-level uncertainties. Counter to conventional wisdom, the price of gasoline and unemployment were unrelated to the reported level of attendance. Furthermore, NASCAR broadcasts lose audience when competing against other high-interest sporting events and declines in both television ratings and audience size during the NASCAR season were not unique to 2009. Overall, the empirical evidence suggests that declining competitive balance might have been the common factor that reduced both television audiences and race attendance during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & Dennis P. Wilson, 2011. "When Going in Circles is Going Backward: Outcome Uncertainty in NASCAR," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 253-283, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:12:y:2011:i:3:p:253-283
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002511404778
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1527002511404778
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1527002511404778?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter A. Groothuis & Jana Groothuis & Kurt W. Rotthoff, 2009. "Time on Camera: An Alternative Explanation of NASCAR Tournaments," Working Papers 09-15, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    2. David Peel & Dennis Thomas, 1997. "Handicaps, outcome uncertainty and attendance demand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 567-570.
    3. Craig A. Depken, II & Larisa Mackey, 2009. "Driver Success in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: The Impact of Multi-Car Teams," Working Papers 0915, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    4. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
    5. Craig A. Depken II & Dennis P. Wilson, 2004. "The Efficiency of the NASCAR Reward System," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(4), pages 371-386, November.
    6. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 1995. "Cross-subsidization, Incentives, and Outcomes in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1265-1299, September.
    7. Jeremy T. Schwartz & Justin P. Isaacs & Anthony M. Carilli, 2007. "To Race or to Place?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(6), pages 633-641, December.
    8. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2007. "The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 199-211.
    9. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
    10. El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-1319, Nov.-Dec..
    11. J. Brian O'Roark & William C. Wood, 2004. "Safety at the Racetrack: Results of Restrictor Plates in Superspeedway Competition," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 118-129, July.
    12. David Paton & Andrew Cooke, 2005. "Attendance at County Cricket," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 24-45, February.
    13. David J. Berri & Martin B. Schmidt & Stacey L. Brook, 2004. "Stars at the Gate," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(1), pages 33-50, February.
    14. Craig Depken, 1999. "Free-Agency and the Competitiveness of Major League Baseball," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 14(3), pages 205-217, May.
    15. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    16. J. Brian O'Roark & William C. Wood, 2004. "Safety at the Racetrack: Results of Restrictor Plates in Superspeedway Competition," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 118-129, July.
    17. William Putsis & Subrata Sen, 2000. "Should NFL blackouts be banned?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1495-1507.
    18. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-249, August.
    19. Andrew Welki & Thomas Zlatoper, 1999. "U.S. professional football game-day attendance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 285-298, September.
    20. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
    21. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:26:y:2007:i:3:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Russell S. Sobel & Todd M. Nesbit, 2007. "Automobile Safety Regulation and the Incentive to Drive Recklessly: Evidence from NASCAR," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 71-84, July.
    23. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    24. Woodland, Linda M & Woodland, Bill M, 1994. "Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 269-279, March.
    25. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    26. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-198, June.
    27. Peter Von Allmen, 2001. "Is the Reward System in NASCAR Efficient?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(1), pages 62-79, February.
    28. Glenn Knowles & Keith Sherony & Mike Haupert, 1992. "The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 36(2), pages 72-80, October.
    29. Jeff Borland, 1987. "The Demand for Australian Rules Football," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(3), pages 220-230, September.
    30. Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
    31. Daniel Mizak & Anthony Stair & John Neral, 2007. "The adjusted churn: an index of competitive balance for sports leagues based on changes in team standings over time," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(3), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    3. Robert J. Lemke & Matthew Leonard & Kelebogile Tlhokwane, 2010. "Estimating Attendance at Major League Baseball Games for the 2007 Season," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 316-348, June.
    4. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Trung Minh Dang & Ross Booth & Robert Brooks & Adi Schnytzer, 2015. "Do TV Viewers Value Uncertainty of Outcome? Evidence from the Australian Football League," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(295), pages 523-535, December.
    7. Wladimir Andreff, 2009. "Équilibre compétitif et contrainte budgétaire dans une ligue de sport professionnel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 591-633.
    8. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    9. Budzinski, Oliver & Feddersen, Arne, 2015. "Grundlagen der Sportnachfrage: Theorie und Empirie der Einflussfaktoren auf die Zuschauernachfrage," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 94, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    10. Pedro Garcia‐del‐Barrio & J. James Reade, 2026. "The impact of uncertainty on fan interest surrounding multiple outcomes in open European football leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 64(1), pages 371-390, January.
    11. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive balance in european football: comparison by adapting measures: national measure of seasonal imbalance and Top 3," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 77-122, Dicembre.
    12. Kevin Mongeon & Jason Winfree, 2012. "Comparison of television and gate demand in the National Basketball Association," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, January.
    13. Scelles, Nicolas (Сели, Николя) & Duran, Christophe (Дюра, Кристоф) & Bonnal, Liliane (Бонналь, Лилиан) & Goyeau, Daniel (Гойюс, Даниэль) & Andreff, Wladimir (Андрефф, Владимир), 2016. "Do all sporting prizes have a significant positive impact on attendance in a European national football league? Competitive intensity in the French Ligue 1 [Действительно Ли Все Спортивные Призы Оказывают Значимое Положительное Воздействие На Посе," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 82-107, June.
    14. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. R. Alan Bowman & James Lambrinos & Thomas Ashman, 2013. "Competitive Balance in the Eyes of the Sports Fan," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(5), pages 498-520, October.
    16. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    17. Dennis Coates & Brad Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2012. "Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance," Working Papers 2012-07, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    18. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    19. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
    20. Brad Humphreys & Bernd Frick, 2019. "Prize Structure and Performance: Evidence from NASCAR," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-13, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:12:y:2011:i:3:p:253-283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.