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Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance

Author

Listed:
  • Coates, Dennis

    (Dept of Economics, UMBC)

  • Humphreys, Brad

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

  • Zhou, Li

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

Abstract

We develop a consumer choice model of live attendance at a sporting event with reference-dependent preferences. The predictions of the model motivate the “uncertainty of outcome hypothesis” (UOH) as well as fan’s desire to see upsets and to simply see the home team win games, depending on the importance of the reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion. A critical review of previous empirical tests of the UOH reveals significant support for models with reference-dependent preferences, but less support for the UOH. New empirical evidence from Major League Baseball supports the loss aversion version of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2012. "Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance," Working Papers 2012-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:2012_007
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    2. Seung C. Ahn & Young H. Lee, 2014. "Major League Baseball Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(5), pages 451-477, October.
    3. Pawlowski, Tim & Budzinski, Oliver, 2014. "Competitive balance and attention level effects: Theoretical considerations and preliminary evidence," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 84, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    4. Budzinski, Oliver, 2017. "Sind Wettbewerbe im Profisport Rattenrennen?," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 104, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    5. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    6. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski & Dennis Coates, 2017. "The Fans’ Perception of Competitive Balance and Its Impact on Willingness-to-Pay for a Single Game," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 479-505, June.
    7. Budzinski, Oliver & Pawlowski, Tim, 2014. "The behavioural economics of competitive balance: Implications for league policy and championship management," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 89, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    8. András Gyimesi, 2020. "League Ranking Mobility Affects Attendance: Evidence From European Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(8), pages 808-828, December.
    9. António Miguel Martins & Susana Cró, 2018. "The Demand for Football in Portugal," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 473-497, May.
    10. Budzinski, Oliver, 2014. "The competition economics of financial fair play," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 85, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    11. Budzinski, Oliver & Kunz-Kaltenhäuser, Philipp, 2020. "Promoting or restricting competition? - The 50plus1-rule in German football," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 141, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty of outcome hypothesis; attendance demand; prospect theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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