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Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches


This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
Issue (Month): 281 (06)
Pages: 262-277

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:88:y:2012:i:281:p:262-277
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  1. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112.
  2. J. Colin H. Jones & John A. Schofield & David E.A. Giles, 1999. "Our Fans in the North: The Demand for British Rugby League," Econometrics Working Papers 9902, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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  4. repec:fth:geneec:00.04 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
  6. Men-Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2006. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend on a Good Thing? Empirical Evidence on Heterogeneity in the Consumer Response to Match Uncertainty of Outcome," Working Papers 0009, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2008.
  7. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
  8. Robert J. Lemke & Matthew Leonard & Kelebogile Tlhokwane, 2010. "Estimating Attendance at Major League Baseball Games for the 2007 Season," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 316-348, June.
  9. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2009. "Unobserved Components in Competitive Balance and Match Attendances in the Australian Football League, 1945-2005: Where is all the Action Happening?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 181-196, 06.
  10. Koning, Ruud H. & Koolhaas, Michael & Renes, Gusta, 2001. "A simulation model for football championships," Research Report 01A65, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  11. Guggenberger, Patrik, 2010. "The impact of a Hausman pretest on the size of a hypothesis test: The panel data case," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 337-343, June.
  12. Mark Baimbridge & Samuel Cameron & Peter Dawson, 1995. "Satellite broadcasting and match attendance: the case of rugby league," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 343-346.
  13. Stephen Dobson & John Goddard & John Wilson, 2001. "League Structure and Match Attendances in English Rugby League," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 335-351.
  14. Christopher F Baum, 2001. "Residual diagnostics for cross-section time series regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 1(1), pages 101-104, November.
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