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Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas King

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • P. Dorian Owen

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Rick Audas

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

Abstract

This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2010. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," Working Papers 1007, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1007
    as

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    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/research/otago077134.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2015. "Competitive Balance Measures In Sports Leagues: The Effects Of Variation In Season Length," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 731-744, January.
    2. Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "The Louis-Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Working Papers 14-22, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    3. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Patrick Massey & Shane Massey, 2014. "Analysing Match Attendance in the European Rugby Cup," Working Papers 201412, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Abhinav Sacheti & David Paton & Ian Gregory-Smith, 2016. "An Economic Analysis of Attendance Demand for One Day International Cricket," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 121-136, March.
    6. Dorian Owen & Caitlin Owen, 2017. "Simulation Evidence on Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices as Measures of Competitive Balance," Working Papers 1715, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    7. Patrick Massey & Shane Massey & Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan, 2012. "Analysing Determinants of Match Attendance in the European Rugby Cup," Working Papers 201228, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    8. repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    playoff uncertainty; match uncertainty; sports league attendance; Australian National Rugby League; fixed effects estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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