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Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football

Author

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  • Schreyer

    (WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management,Vallendar, Germany)

  • Torgler Benno

    (CREMA – Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts and Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane, Australia)

  • Schmidt Sascha L.

    (WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management and CREMA – Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts,Brisbane, Australia)

Abstract

Despite its prominence in the economic literature, our knowledge regarding the role of game outcome uncertainty (GOU) in spectator decision-making is fairly limited. Even worse, studies testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) by exploring TV demand for European football have further intensified the original ambiguity. In this paper, we revisit the role of GOU in spectator decision-making by testing the UOH with regard to two different sporting products: (1) domestic league and (2) knockout tournament games. Analyzing TV demand for almost 1,500 German football games, we find support for the UOH in league, though not in knockout tournament games.

Suggested Citation

  • Schreyer & Torgler Benno & Schmidt Sascha L., 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:19:y:2018:i:2:p:140-161
    DOI: 10.1111/geer.12120
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2017. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for International Football Games: Evidence From the German TV Market," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 31-45, January.
    2. Luc Arrondel & Richard Duhautois, 2019. "Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty?," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 513, pages 5-26.
    3. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2022. "Eliminating supportive crowds reduces referee bias," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1416-1436, July.
    4. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Echoes: what happens when football is played behind closed doors?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-14, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    5. Buraimo, Babatunde & Forrest, David & McHale, Ian G. & Tena, J.D., 2022. "Armchair fans: Modelling audience size for televised football matches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 644-655.
    6. Dominik Schreyer & Daniel Däuper, 2018. "Determinants of spectator no-show behaviour: first empirical evidence from the German Bundesliga," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(21), pages 1475-1480, December.
    7. Chan, Ho Fai & Ulrich, Fabian & Altman, Hannah & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Torgler, Benno, 2022. "Beyond performance? The importance of subjective and objective physical appearance in award nominations and receptions in football," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 271-289.
    8. Hammerschmidt, Jonas & Durst, Susanne & Kraus, Sascha & Puumalainen, Kaisu, 2021. "Professional football clubs and empirical evidence from the COVID-19 crisis: Time for sport entrepreneurship?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    9. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    10. Shanshan Li & Kihan Kim, 2025. "Factors affecting audience demand for professional football game videos: an analysis of post-game highlight videos on streaming platforms," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Taeyeon Oh & Seomgyun Lee & Hayley Jang, 2023. "Outcome Uncertainty and ESports Viewership: The Case of Overwatch League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 971-992, December.
    12. Anthony Macedo & Marta Ferreira Dias & Paulo Reis Mourão, 2023. "European Men's Club Football in the Eyes of Consumers: The Determinants of Television Broadcast Demand," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 579-623, June.
    13. Uribe, Rodrigo & Buzeta, Cristian & Manzur, Enrique & Alvarez, Isabel, 2021. "Determinants of football TV audience: The straight and ancillary effects of the presence of the local team on the FIFA world cup," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 454-463.
    14. András Gyimesi, 2024. "Competitive Balance in the Post-2024 Champions League and the European Super League: A Simulation Study," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 707-734, August.
    15. Maxence Franceschi & Jean‐François Brocard & Florian Follert & Jean‐Jacques Gouguet, 2024. "Football players in light of economic value theory: Critical review and conceptualisation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), pages 896-920, March.
    16. David Matesanz & Florian Holzmayer & Benno Torgler & Sascha L Schmidt & Guillermo J Ortega, 2018. "Transfer market activities and sportive performance in European first football leagues: A dynamic network approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2019. "Football Spectator No-Show Behavior," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 580-602, May.
    18. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski & Dominik Schreyer, 2023. "Substitution Effects and the Transnational Demand for European Soccer Telecasts," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 407-442, May.
    19. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Ian G. McHale & J.D. Tena, 2020. "Armchair Fans: New Insights Into The Demand For Televised Soccer," Working Papers 202020, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    20. Tim Pawlowski & Georgios Nalbantis & Dennis Coates, 2018. "Perceived Game Uncertainty, Suspense And The Demand For Sport," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 173-192, January.

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