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Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations

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  • Hojun Sung
  • Brian M. Mills

Abstract

•We find substantial interest in both home and visiting team quality.•We find evidence contrary to predictions of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis.•MLS encouragement of higher absolute quality may be a useful strategy in growing attendance.•Highlighting high quality visitors may be a fruitful strategy for home team marketers.Despite its continued growth, there are doubts about the sustainability of demand for Major League Soccer, which has a strong focus on superstar externalities through its designated player rules. Yet there is relatively limited research directly focusing on classical determinants of demand for league attendance. The authors set out to establish an estimate of the relative importance of relative quality – outcome uncertainty – and absolute quality in game attendance. They find that fans behave in ways more consistent with the loss aversion hypothesis than the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, with considerable interest in both home and away team absolute quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills, 2018. "Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 519-532, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rsmrxx:v:21:y:2018:i:5:p:519-532
    DOI: 10.1016/j.smr.2017.12.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Masafumi Watanabe & George B Cunningham, 2020. "The impact of race relations on NFL attendance: An econometric analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. John Charles Bradbury, 2024. "Revisiting the novelty effect from new stadiums: An event study approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1722-1747, October.
    3. E. Frank Stephenson, 2024. "International Competitions, Star Players, and NWSL Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 186-199, February.
    4. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills & Younghoon Lee, 2022. "Moments of Competitive Balance in Major League Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 329-354, April.
    5. Hojun Sung & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2023. "Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 717-736, August.
    6. Franziska Prockl, 2018. "The Superstar Code - Deciphering Key Characteristics And Their Value," Working Papers Dissertations 38, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    7. Franziska Prockl & Dirk Semmelroth, 2018. "Perception Versus Reality - Competitive Balance In Major League Soccer From 1996 – 2016," Working Papers Dissertations 36, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    8. Antonio Avila‐Cano & Francisco Triguero‐Ruiz, 2023. "On the control of competitive balance in the major European football leagues," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 1254-1263, March.
    9. Nicholas M. Watanabe & Grace Yan & Brian P. Soebbing, 2019. "Market disruption as a regime for athlete activism: An economic analysis of college football player protests," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 600-612, December.
    10. Moonsup Hyun & Gareth J. Jones & Wonsok (Frank) Jee & Jeremy S. Jordan & James Du & Yohan Lee, 2023. "Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1076-1096, December.
    11. Dirk Semmelroth & Bernd Frick & Robert Simmons & Hojun Sung, 2022. "Where to Go Next? Examining the Effect of Franchise Expansion and Location on Game-Level Attendance in Major League Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 524-547, June.
    12. Valenti, Maurizio & Scelles, Nicolas & Morrow, Stephen, 2020. "The determinants of stadium attendance in elite women’s football: Evidence from the UEFA Women's Champions League," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 509-520.
    13. Shanshan Li & Kihan Kim, 2025. "Factors affecting audience demand for professional football game videos: an analysis of post-game highlight videos on streaming platforms," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. John Charles Bradbury, 2021. "Financial Returns in Major League Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(8), pages 921-945, December.
    15. Yan Feng & Jinbao Wang & Yeujun Yoon, 2020. "Online Webcast Demand vs. Offline Spectating Channel Demand (Stadium and TV) in the Professional Sports League," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, November.

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