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Ex Ante and Ex Post Expectation of Outcome Uncertainty and Television Viewership of a Baseball Game

  • Young Hoon Lee

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul)

  • Jigyu Chung

    (Samsung Sports Administration Team)

  • Joonho Kang

    (Seoul National University)

Attendance is determined by the ex ante expectation on the quality of a game, while television viewing is influenced by the actual progression of a game since switching television channel costs nil. This implies that the determinants of baseball demand on television may change as the games progress. This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the demand for baseball games on television and the uncertainty of game outcomes. In particular, it analyzes the inning-varying coefficients in the television rating regression equation. According to our empirical study, the expectation of a game outcome uncertainty and the game quality, which are formed before a game begins, significantly influence the television viewership in the first inning; however, their effects reduce gradually as the games progress. On the other hand, actual tightness of competition, offensive performance, and turnovers do not impact television viewership in the early part of a game, yet, theses factors become major determinants of the television demand in the later part of a game.

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File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University in its series Working Papers with number 1206.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:1206
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Phone: 82-2-705-8226
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Web page: http://home.sogang.ac.kr/sites/sgrime
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  1. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & Dennis P. Wilson, 2011. "When Going in Circles is Going Backward: Outcome Uncertainty in NASCAR," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 253-283, June.
  2. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112.
  3. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
  4. Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
  5. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
  6. Martin B. Schmidt & David J. Berri, 2001. "Competitive Balance and Attendance: The Case of Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(2), pages 145-167, May.
  7. David Forrest & Rob Simmons & Stefan Szymanski, 2004. "Broadcasting, Attendance and the Inefficiency of Cartels," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 243-265, 05.
  8. Martin Schmidt & David Berri, 2002. "The impact of the 1981 and 1994-1995 strikes on Major League Baseball attendance: a time-series analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 471-478.
  9. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2007. "The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 199-211.
  10. Anthony C. Krautmann & Lawrence Hadley, 2006. "Dynasties versus pennant races: competitive balance in major league baseball," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 287-292.
  11. B Buraimo & D Forrest & R Simmons, 2004. "Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience," Working Papers 542822, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
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