Ex Ante and Ex Post Expectation of Outcome Uncertainty and Television Viewership of a Baseball Game
Attendance is determined by the ex ante expectation on the quality of a game, while television viewing is influenced by the actual progression of a game since switching television channel costs nil. This implies that the determinants of baseball demand on television may change as the games progress. This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the demand for baseball games on television and the uncertainty of game outcomes. In particular, it analyzes the inning-varying coefficients in the television rating regression equation. According to our empirical study, the expectation of a game outcome uncertainty and the game quality, which are formed before a game begins, significantly influence the television viewership in the first inning; however, their effects reduce gradually as the games progress. On the other hand, actual tightness of competition, offensive performance, and turnovers do not impact television viewership in the early part of a game, yet, theses factors become major determinants of the television demand in the later part of a game.
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